If things remain constant, Ruto will win resoundingly in 2027

History has it that in the 1992 general elections, Mt Kenya, due to the selfishness and political ego-centrism of their then kingpins, Mwai Kibaki and Kenneth Matiba, inadvertently helped Daniel arap Moi, their sworn political enemy numero uno, retain his iron grip on power.

It must be remembered that Moi won that year's election with a simple majority of 36 per cent, amounting to a mere 1.962 million votes, as per the former constitution.

On the one hand, Matiba, with overwhelming support from his Murang'a home turf, Kiambu, Nairobi, the larger Kikuyu diaspora in Rift Valley—particularly Nakuru—and the "shipilishipili" Shikuku factor in Western Kenya, garnered over 1.404 million votes (26 per cent).

Kibaki, with strong backing from his Nyeri home turf and its Laikipia diaspora as well as overwhelmingly from Mt Kenya East of Meru, secured over 1.050 million votes (19 per cent).

Political pundits have consistently concluded that had these two kingpins united their combined support of over 2.4 million votes around one candidate, Moi would not have remained president for another long 10 years.

It took the natural attrition of poor health to remove Matiba from the equation, along with Moi's constitutional term limitation and Raila's pronouncement of 'Kibaki Tosha', which rallied Mt Kenya and the rest of Kenya—almost unanimously—around the Great Emilio in 2002.

However, Kiambu and some scattered Mt Kenya enclaves in the diaspora, largely guided by the 1969 oath of "never let Ûthamaki cross River Chania," voted overwhelmingly for their local candidate Uhuru Kenyatta.

Fast forward: That same default Mt Kenya unity, enriched by the 2012 political handshake with Rift Valley, twice propelled Uhuru to State House.

Now here we are. The more things change, the more they remain the same. ‘Molima’ is back to the political selfishness and egos reminiscent of 1992. Fortunately, there is no kingpin of the calibre of Kibaki or Matiba.

Notably, there is an emerging dichotomy between Mt Kenya East and Mt Kenya West. If the political landscape remains constant up to 2027, one faction will retain its alliance with Rift Valley and the rest of Kenya and ensure that Ruto—a PhD cum laude graduate of Arap Moi School of Politics—continues to smile well past 2032.

Politics worldwide—and especially in this outpost—is conducted from deep pockets. National politics is shaped through regional and local opinion leaders. Those who matter are at the beck and call of Uhuru; it is from this group that some have been seconded to government roles.

It is also important to note that credible opinion leaders must not necessarily be political loudmouths or media wags but should be individuals of means in their own right. Should we inquire about Karungo Thang’wa, Catherine Waruguru, Muthoni Wamuchomba, Kimani Ngunjiri or even Kalonzo Musyoka, Jeremiah Kioni, Eugene Wamalwa et al., if peradventure they were to team up?

Against this backdrop, Rigathi Gachagua remains barred from public office for at least 10 years unless his impeachment is lifted by the courts.

Now enter alleged Uhuru's influence in new political developments within the government seat. Uhuru’s involvement strongly suggests he would prefer to mend fences with his former principal assistant rather than align with a populist former personal assistant.

For a moment, forget about the 2027 elections and potential presidential candidates. Imagine Uhuru, Ruto, and Raila in the same boat! Who can competently challenge the deep-pocketed Ruto-Uhuru-Raila political axis during this interim period? I dare say that challenging such a political behemoth would be suicidal.

If the great and sacred Mûgumo tree—the unofficial totem tree of the mountain—is tottering precariously on the edge of the political landscape, these political beavers are solely responsible for gnawing at its base with their hubris and behind-the-curtain machinations. The train has left the station; Ruto has taken off with the 2027 vote.

Mr Toroitich is a communication Lecturer and Researcher