The Mt Kenya riddle that Ruto must solve to stay safe in 2027

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Interior CS Kithure Kindiki at the Kenya-Somalia border post in Mandera ahead of Kenya-Ethiopia-Somalia trilateral meeting that will bring peace and trade between the three countries on May 11,2023. [File, Standard]

The endorsement of Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki by sections of MPs from Mt Kenya region last week as their kingpin appears to complicate matters for Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in his efforts to consolidate the region behind him.

Political observers believe the move by the 68 MPs is an indication that ominous dark clouds are still gathering over Gachagua a few weeks after his political rivals shelved an impeachment motion against him.

They further argue that the new turn of events was a clear indication that the political marriage with his boss President William Ruto remain on the rocks.

Opinion is divided on the political consequences of President Ruto replacing Gachagua with another pick in the 2027 presidential poll.

Some observers say such a decision will cost Ruto many Mt Kenya votes. Others argue that the die is cast for Ruto in the Mt Kenya region and whether he retains Gachagua or not, the voters in the region are done with him.

Pundits argue that some subterranean political forces in the Kenya Kwanza were working hard to dislocate and shift Mt Kenya’s political tectonic plates to weaken its stability and voting strength come the next elections.

With shifting of power, Ruto is expected to create another axis of influence revolving around Kindiki and, by extension, the Embu, Meru, Kirinyaga, and Tharaka Nithi support base which are perceived to be friendly to him in comparison to the rest of the Mt Kenya counties.

Andrew Nyabuto, a political commentator, says it is clear that there is an issue between the president and his deputy, to the extent that the DP has hinted at exiting the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

“Gachagua’s silence during anti-finance Bill demos was telling, and this might have startled the president,” he said.

Nyabuto believes the threats and intimidation by Gachugua’s allies like the Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga might be another reason Ruto might drop Gachagua as his running mate.

Following the recent rapprochement between Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, the Head of State appears to be consolidating his support base around Rift Valley, Nyanza, Western, and Coast regional blocks.

Leaders expressed their views that there were concerns within Kenya Kwanza that a united Mt Kenya region combined with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s forces would turn tables against President Ruto.

A former Ndaragwa MP Mwangi Gichuki says despite efforts to instigate divisions in the region, the central Kenya voting block will remain a formidable force come 2027.

Gichuki said the much-talked-about alliance between the Gema and the Akamba community had forced the Kenya Kwanza administration to go back to the drawing board as the coalition fell short of numbers,” says Gichuki.

Another political commentator, Njenga Kihanya says Kenya Kwanza has realised that it would be unable to manipulate Mt Kenya region for a second time, hence the efforts to instigate squabbles and divisions amongst its leadership.

Kihanya, who served as a political strategist for the Party of National Unity (PNU) and The National Alliance (TNA) party, observes that the political machinations against Gachagua were being instigated by powerful forces in the government to weaken Mt Kenya.

“The government forces have realised that Gachagua’s unity call on Mt Kenya residents is being well received in the group and could very easily shift the region’s political direction. That is why he is being undermined,” Kihanya adds.

Kihanya says the current voters’ numbers favoured a candidate who will have the support of the Mt Kenya region.

He also points out that it will also be impossible for Gachagua to rally the Mt Kenya community to support the re-election of President Ruto.

The decision by a group of 20 MPs from Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi, under the auspices of Mt Kenya East, to chart their destiny independent of Mt Kenya West, brings to the fore deepening political fissures in the vote-rich region.

A political commentator Kabue Mathenge observes that Mt Kenya East has since the colonial era been perceived “as the weak point in the larger Mt Kenya front. This has never been the case in reality.” He says and adds “The colonial administration attempted to isolate Mt Kenya East from the rest of Mt Kenya region, but this did not succeed”.

Mathenge, who worked as Rift Valley provincial campaign coordinator for both President Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta, further says the political schism in Mt Kenya region was artificial “as it’s driven by selfish MPs and not the people at the grassroots level.”

“What we are witnessing is the replay of the KANU script of divide and rule strategy,” Mathenge says.

 Former Bahati MP Kimani Ngunjiri claims President Ruto’s hand was behind the subterfuge forces bent on destabilising Gachagua following his rising political star in Mt Kenya.

He argues that the incessant squabbles and conflicts in Mt Kenya region “are financed, well-choreographed and orchestrated by the highest office in the land to disorganise Mt Kenya leadership and ensure its voting strength is weakened.”

Both Mathenge and Ngunjiri argue that the Mt Kenya region would remain an indomitable force in the 2027 elections due to its large number of voters and unmatched high voter turnout.