In Venezuela's vote, both sides predict victory, but opposition fears fraud

Venezuela's President and presidential candidate Nicolas Maduro gestures during a meeting with international observers at La Carlota Airforce base in Caracas on July 27, 2024. [AFP]

Voters on both sides of the political aisle in Venezuela are convinced of victory in Sunday's presidential elections, in which incumbent Nicolas Maduro faces opposition challenger Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia.

But one side, the opposition, is fearful its win -- predicted by pollsters to be by a wide margin -- will be somehow snatched away.

Already, their candidate Maria Corina Machado has been barred from the race by institutions loyal to Maduro. Ex-diplomat Gonzalez Urrutia is running in her stead.

Amid claims of widespread opposition harassment and dozens of arrests, great uncertainty hangs over what will happen after the ballots are cast.

Voters told AFP of their expectations:

On the opposition side

Telecommunications worker Luis Carlos Rodriguez, 54, attended an opposition rally in Caracas, eager to lay eyes on Machado.

He said he wanted change: "more freedom of expression... more economic freedom, less corruption."

But he was sure Maduro's government would claim victory "one way or another."

"I don't see the CNE (electoral authority) announcing that Maria Corina won. That's not going to happen. The question is what she's going to do after that," said Rodriguez, referring to the proxy campaign led by Gonzalez Urrutia.

The regime's instinct, he said, will be to "hold on, repress."

Rodriguez did not think there would be large-scale protests, though, with "few people who want to risk going out on the street."

He, for one, will not.

Pensioner Mercedes Henriquez, 68, agreed the opposition was the only way forward for Venezuela.

"We can't anymore with this dictatorship," she said.

"We're praying that they don't steal the election. They always have. But this time, we have three million votes" more than Maduro, she added -- which, if true, would make it harder to massage the outcome.

But if they do? "Well, we have to go out on the street. For my vote. For my children" -- two of whom are among the more than seven million Venezuelans living abroad, along with six of her grandchildren.

Marianella, 35, spoke to AFP at a coffee shop in Caracas, but did not want to give her surname "for fear" of retribution against her children or small business.

"There's a tense calm out there because change is coming and everybody knows it," she said.

"We can't take it anymore, this country has to move on. We need change in everything. Health, education, all the ministries, all legal entities, all the courts. Nothing works in this country. Nothing."

On the regime side

Jesus Godoy, 57, recalled a time of shortages in Caracas that he blamed on a "a brutal economic war, a crisis created by the opposition" after Maduro's first election in 2013, as oil prices plummeted and the country entered a recession.

"Today it's wonderful, you go to a shop and you find what you need. The dollar (exchange rate) is stable now... thanks to President Nicolas Maduro," who relaxed foreign currency regulations.

The education ministry worker told AFP at a pro-government rally that on Sunday, "we are going to have a double celebration: the election of President Nicolas Maduro... and the birthday celebration of our Commander Hugo Chavez" -- Maduro's predecessor and mentor, born 70 years ago on election day.

At the same rally, a man in a Maduro T-shirt whispered to AFP that he was being "forced" to attend by his employer.

Meanwhile, retiree Albertina Contrera, 70, told AFP on a Caracas sidewalk bench she supported Maduro "because we have security, peace" compared to years earlier when violent crime rates in the capital were much higher, and she herself was held up at gunpoint in her home.

At the same rally as Godoy, Yessenia Lara, a teacher and president of an education workers' association, insisted: "My blood is red and my vote is red" -- the color of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).

The country was doing well, she insisted, despite "circumstances" wrought on it by the opposition, backed by the United States.

She refused to acknowledge Maduro's widely-broadcast warning of a "bloodbath" if he loses the vote.

On Sunday, "when the National Electoral Council says we've won and the map comes out red, red, red, red, we’ll go out and celebrate with joy," she said.

And if they lose? "We'll accept" that, she said, "but I doubt" that will happen.