High stakes for Kenya and EAC as elections test Kagame's mettle

 President Paul Kagame’s supporters at a rally in Nyarugenge outside Kigali. [Mark Oloo, Standard]

Focus has turned to Kigali as Rwanda goes to the polls on July 15, with President Paul Kagame facing off with two other candidates.

As youth-led protests in Kenya over proposed tax hikes turned the spotlight on the region, poll fever has been evident in Rwanda.

Mr Kagame, who became president in 2000 and chairs the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF), is seeking a fourth term. The two hopefuls keen to unseat him are Dr Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party and Philippe Mpayimana, an independent.

The two say they have what it takes to give voters fresh breath. On the campaign trail this past week, the president rested himself easy. Likening himself to a lion leading other lions, Mr Kagame said the coming election will showcase Rwanda’s democracy to the world. “Democracy is about making your choices. Rwandans must be allowed to decide what they want.

We don’t make choices for those criticizing us. Here, we have our democracy. Aren’t there other candidates? That’s a sign of democracy,” he told supporters in Musanze, north of Kigali. 

“You are lions led by a lion. Let us continue to strengthen our unity, and build a democracy that allows us to choose what we deserve. And the rest will be a smooth path to transformation,” he said at another rally in the Muslim-dominated area of Nyarugenge outside Kigali.

The veteran president is equally bitter that the world abandoned Rwanda at its hour of need during the 1994 genocide. “What we have been through in the past 30 years, the history learned, the battles fought, have been tough indeed. But do you know what it’s like to be abandoned, and then targeted by the world? Do you know both happened to us?” Mr Kagame posed on Wednesday.

His supporters and close allies credit him with ending the 1994 genocide. But his competitors accuse him of speaking big at the world stage but doing little to eradicate poverty at home. “There are Rwandans who survive on one meal a day, teachers are poorly paid and the government doesn’t care,” Dr Habineza told a rally in Busoro on Thursday.

Dr Habineza sees himself as the biblical David facing off with Goliath. However, many observers in Rwanda say Mr Kagame’s win in the July 15 election is guaranteed. “So long as he is actively involved in politics, Mr Kagame will always be favorite,” Mr Jean Rwema told Sunday Standard.

The July elections promise to be of interest to East African Community (EAC) member states in many respects. Kenya, in particular, will be keenly watching events in Rwanda. Kigali acceded to the EAC Treaty on June 18, 2007.

As the region’s economic powerhouse, Kenya recognizes Rwanda as a worthy competitor, starting with its ability to attract significant Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs). The land locked nation, with a $13.31 billion GDP, targets more than $1.5 billion from FDIs annually against Kenya, whose FDI inflows fell by 5.8 per cent to $1.5 billion in 2023.

In the past, influential companies unable to invest in Kenya for one reason or another, have ended up pitching tent in Kigali. “Ease of registering a company in Rwanda has helped shape the trend,” Chief Executive Officer of Rwanda Private Sector Federation Stephen Ruzibiza says.

With a population of 13 million and impressive predictions of economic growth, Rwanda is a darling of investors seeking new opportunities, a situation that analysts say has given the tiny nation an economic edge to the chagrin of its EAC partner states.

Watching keenly

Kenya will be watching keenly since it cooperates with Rwanda to a greater extent mainly in agriculture, trade, security, education, and energy. “A harmonious election in Rwanda will be a plus for the EAC nations and will be a political and diplomatic merit for Kigali. Allies like Kenya will be watching keenly,” says political science expert Paul Kiteme.

Low domestic corruption and economic diversification remain the country’s biggest strength, attracting tech firms trying out various innovations. Kigali, for instance, hosts Zipra, a US company that promotes drone technology. Based in Muhanga District, the firm works with Rwanda’s civil aviation authority to use drones in supplying medicine to hospitals.

Rwanda also hosts the African Leadership Academy and Norrsken, which is Africa’s largest hub for entrepreneurs. There is also the Rwanda Institute of Conservation Agriculture (RICA) which, according to vice-chancellor Ron Rosati, admits students from EAC nations, with a focus on food production for consumption and export.

“Rwanda believes very much in skills development and entrepreneurship. This is why you see so many companies operating from here,” ICT Permanent Secretary Yves Iradukunda tells Sunday Standard during a visit to Norrsken in central Kigali on Wednesday.

Mr Kagame has previously been accused of rights abuses and constricting the civil space. But as he faces the ballot on July 15, his work is clearly cut out for him. He must prove critics wrong by making Rwanda the ‘Singapore of Africa’.

Also, he must convince the world that Kigali has nothing to do with the raging conflict in DR Congo pitting Congolese forces, M23 and 200 other rebel groups. His RPF party will also have to avoid suffering the fate of other monolithic parties like South Africa’s ANC that have lost favour with voters, especially the Gen-Zs.

Rwanda has 9.5 million registered voters. This will be the first time that citizens will be voting for president alongside MPs.