Gachagua's impeachment and convergence of Raila, Ruto interests

Several revealing happenings of serious concern appear to occupy public mind. Two of them—the impeachment circus Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Raila Odinga’s confession of links with India’s Narendra Modi and Adani helped to shift focus from organised Adani acquisition of public assets. Less glaring were two meetings in Kenya’s old universities bringing scholars together to address points of growing concern and interest.

One was at the ecumenical St Paul University on ‘Rethinking Security in Africa’ in the midst of pervasive absence of sense of security and ‘peace’ and how to restore both. The other was at University of Nairobi on the Mau Mau War and ‘Transitions … of the Post-colonial states’ in light of current tribulations.

The scholarly effort paled in the intensity of the Gachagua and Raila Odinga shows whose effect was to divert attention, sanitise, and facilitate perceived national misdeeds.

Gachagua and Raila are alike and yet so different that each stands out. Both like publicity, standing out in the crowd, being the focus of attention, and are very assertive.

While Raila is ‘dynasty’ with a big inherited and permanent following in the Lake region that gives him national political clout, Gachagua aspires to replace Uhuru Kenyatta as the presumed ‘leader’ of the Mountain region and falls short of his dream.

Raila uses his clout to make economic and political deals of substantial benefits even after losing in political competition, Gachagua failed to capitalise on, and turned, his supposed 2022 victory into a liability. Raila, believing that Gachagua was unfit to be deputy president, helped to turn victory into liability.

Raila knows how to ingratiate himself to power, projecting an image of ‘revolutionary’ or fighter as a political tool, and creating points of common interests with those in power, often at the expense of a potential power competitor. He did it in 1998, 2008, 2018, and 2024.

In each instance, he makes visible gains that other players cannot. The latest is the convergence of political and economic interests between Raila and President William Ruto with blundering Gachagua as the focal point.

The two, Raila and Ruto, had worked together under Daniel arap Moi in the late 1990s when they dislodged George Saitoti and JJ Kamotho from the Kanu leadership. They were together in the 2005 Orange-Banana referendum, helped to create ODM were united in the 2007 Pentagon campaigns resulting in the 2007/8 electoral violence. Separated by The Hague, they openly re-united in 2024 at the height of the Gen Z uprising which threatened their individual political clouts.

A belief started developing that Gachagua had somehow inspired or funded the Gen Zs to grab power; Raila had come to the rescue by joining forces with Ruto.

While in 1982, Raila had claimed that he helped organise a coup in order to stop Charles Njonjo from mounting a coup, stopping Gachagua explains the convergence of interests between Raila and Ruto.

In 1983, there followed the ‘Msaliti’ socio-political drama; in 2024 there was the Gachagua socio-political entertainment called impeachment. The National Assembly impeached and the Senate convicted him while he was in a hospital bed.

The impeachment saga achieved three transient things. First, it helped to divert attention, albeit temporarily, from public pre-occupation with Adani amassing of Kenyan public wealth.

Second, it enabled Raila to defend Adani acquisitions and bring Modi into the picture. He came to know Adani, he said, through Gujarati Chief Minister Narendra Modi when he was prime minister in the nusu mkate government.

Modi, with Adani still on his side, is India’s prime minister, pushing India’s global interests.

Third, impeachment virtually freed Ruto and, like Moi in 1978 and 1984, sent powerful messages of being unquestionable. His team is likely to suggest changes in the 2010 Constitution, through an accommodating ‘Parliament’ to entrench desires to transform Kenya the Ruto-way. How the country will react remains to be seen.