Saitoti’s death to change dynamics in Kibaki succession

By BEN AGINA

Having been a heartbeat away from State House for 13 years, Prof George Saitoti knew he would be a major factor in how the next General Election would turn out.

On December 2, last year, long after other State House hopefuls made their intentions known, the Party of National Unity (PNU) chairm anannounced he would run for office. Unlikely to win, according to conventional wisdom and most opinion polls, he was seen as a unifying figure for a party in disarray.

The immediate support he got from current and former Members of Parliament suggests he would have been decisive in how the poll played out in Nairobi and nearby counties, which have enough votes to determine who wins the presidential race. His tragic death just six months later upsets both the Grand Coalition and the race to succeed President Kibaki.

On Saturday, at his burial, two presidential hopefuls told Kenyans they felt a duty to honour an agreement they had made with the long-time Kajiado North MP.

“Uhuru (Kenyatta) and I owe Prof Saitoti some debt,” Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka said at the burial in Kitengela.

 “It is the protocol the three of us signed (on how to approach the General Election) … Saitoti was prepared to give all to this nation … If we could live the letter and spirit of that protocol, this country is going to emerge stronger.”

Uhuru, a key part of Kibaki’s succession arrangement, had earlier said he was ready to put aside his ambition to take the country where Saitoti would have wanted it to be.

Just last week, the former VP made an impassioned speech on the need for a peaceful election, thoughts Kibaki and others recalled yesterday. Saitoti, Kalonzo and Uhuru signed a protocol in November 2010, binding them to face off in a joint presidential nomination race through the PNU alliance.

The deal was meant to avoid the acrimony that attends races with candidates backed largely by their ethniccommunities.

Before Saitoti’s death, there were doubts over whether this would come to be.

Known as one who “chose his words carefully”, Saitoti never got to respond to unconfirmed reports he had a secret deal with Prime Minister Raila Odinga to be a potential running mate in a ticket against Uhuru, the PM’s strongest rival.

Could this explain his delayed entry into the presidential race?
The talk gained credence after both made separate secret visits to the rural home of media mogul, SK Macharia in January.

Opposition onslaught

Saitoti and SK worked closely in the 1990s as senior members of the Central Province Development Support Group to counter the Opposition’s onslaught of Kanu in the region. Saitoti travelled to Ndaka-ini alone. Oburu Oginga, the PM’s elder brother, and Wilfred Kiboro, a former Saitoti classmate and media executive, accompanied Raila. Whatever strategy, if any, was in play was never to emerge.

Despite the agreement with Uhuru and Kalonzo, Saitoti kept his distance from the informal G7 Alliance as he went on the road to rally support. This may have been because he was seen as a potential Raila ally or because of his politically awkward role as the Government’s link with the International Criminal Court (ICC).

As with Kalonzo’s bid, Uhuru’s camp was suspicious Saitoti’s campaign was premised on assumption the ICC may knock the Deputy PM and his ally, Eldoret North MP, William Ruto, out of the contest.

But if that happened, his appeal to central Kenya and Rift Valley constituencies would be weakened by his perceived role in their misery.

As chairman of the Cabinet committee on the ICC and Minister of State, Saitoti served as the guarantor to the ICC that the Government would ensure they attend trial. While the accused have shown no sign they would evade summonses, it helped that he did not show the kind of enthusiasm former Justice Minister Mutula Kilonzo had for a speedy road to justice and away from the ballot box.

The lead role in ICC duties, evaded skillfully by Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, will now fall on others, changing the dynamics of the presidential race and affecting allincs.

“The ICC question is yet to be fully settled,” says a PNU insider, citing a call in the current edition of the Economist magazine for more Western pressure to stop Uhuru and Ruto from running.

 “Kenyans are yet to see how far the European Union and Washington are willing to go on the matter.”
In recent days, the late Internal Security minister was increasingly being viewed as the de facto second-in-command in the PNU coalition power hierarchy. This followed the death of John Michuki, and the relegation from the centre of Ambassador Francis Muthaura and Uhuru.

Muthaura, once tagged the ‘shadow president’ over the powers Kibaki delegated to him as Head of Civil Service, and Uhuru, a Deputy PM and once holder of the key Finance docket, were forced out of the inner circle after charges against them at the International Criminal Court (ICC) were confirmed in January. Michuki, one of Saitoti’s Office of the President predecessors, remained influential, even as ill health saw him move to less demanding dockets until his death in February.

In their absence, it fell on Prof Saitoti to take a bigger role in the Kibaki court, even as he ran the powerful and pivotal homeland security docket, customarily only held by the most trusted lieutenants.

Key projects

With the unexpected loss of Saitoti, the dynamics in the larger PNU and G7 territory narrow down to Kalonzo and Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi, depending on what happens to ICC accused Uhuru and William Ruto.

The loss of Saitoti to Kibaki is comparable to the void left for Uhuru in Kanu when Bonaya Godana, MP for North Horr, died in an air crash in 2006. Called on for key projects from the onset of the Kibaki administration, the high point of the former VP’s renewed stature became apparent last year when he, as Internal Security, Foreign Affairs minister, and Defence Minister Yusuf Haji led Kenya into her largest ever military expedition.

Defying regional and international opposition, Prof Saitoti defended the decision saying the Government’s first responsibility was to defend its citizens’ interests. Domestically, he championed police reforms and led the teams crafting new administrative regions in a bold and controversial reorganisation of Government. He was poised to play a critical role in the transitional election next year, overseeing security of the exercise with a larger, revamped Police Service.

In the Kibaki succession politics, Prof Saitoti kept his cards close to his chest, only citing his experience as one of the reasons he was in the race.
“I have handled all the difficult dockets in Government for many years, and each came with its own challenges,” he said, referring to his stints at Finance, Planning/National Development, Internal Security/Provincial Administration, Foreign Affairs, and Education.

His role in executing the Free Primary Education programme, a success despite teething problems and later the rise of corruption, was proof of this experience.

In a race whose strongest candidate is preferred for his reform credentials, however, Saitoti’s vast experience gave voters scant comfort.