Syria after Assad: Should we celebrate or worry?

The long reign by father and son in Syria, spanning 50 years, came to an end as fast it began. It ended in disgrace, the son going into exile and father’s grave desecrated. 

The Assads have led Syria since 1971. Hafez al Assad handing over to his son, Bashar al-Assad, in 2000.

Power is intoxicating and strange. Why would a family sacrifice so many lives to stay in power, with millions ending up as refugees? Remember the Syrian civil war in 2011, the deaths and refugees.

UNHCR puts the number of Syrian refugees at 14 million in a population of 23 million. Syrian network for human rights puts deaths from civil war since 2011 at over 230,000.

Watching the behaviour of political leaders who stay in power for too long—from Mobutu in Congo to Assads in Syria, or Duvaliers in Haiti and many others countries—I marvel at the similarity between political power and witchcraft. Both are hard to explain, both bring tragedies and sorrow.

Why do such leaders cling to power when the masses do not want them? Why does power become so intoxicating that we even want to pass it to the next generation, to remain in the family? Why does political power at times supersede human lives? Why is power often associated with human suffering, yet it’s supposed to alleviate it?

What can one do in power that can’t be done when out of power, including pursuing your own interests or just resting? Is leading millions not taxing enough? Note how political leaders’ hair greys fast while in office. You wonder why political leaders (and some corporate leaders too) want to prolong their stay in office when our own lifespans are limited.

The problem seems to start with cross-pollinating political power with quasi-religious ceremonies, which eventually makes one feel invincible. Think of campaigns, voting, swearing and related ceremonies. They add to the mystic of power and its intoxication.

If the process of getting power was simplified, maybe it could become less intoxicating and less risky to society. In UK, from where we picked lots of our political ceremonies, the king or queen is the head of the Anglican Church. Watch the inauguration of Donald Trump next month.

Extremist leaders

The Greeks invented democracy to ensure rulers get the consent of the ruled. With a term limit, voters can kick out non-performers. Sadly, some leaders ignore that or rig the polls. Such leaders become extremists, often using repression to remain in power. Psychology seems to suggest they are usually powerless, lacking confidence and maturity, and they compensate for that by going to extremes including killing opponents.

Back to the Assad family. Now they are out of power and secure in Moscow, Russia. My observation is that the longer leaders stay in power the more chaos they leave behind.

Look at Haiti after Duvalier family left. That is why Kenyan policemen are there. Libya after Gaddafi, Zimbabwe after Mugabe, Iraq after Saddam Hussein, Yugoslavia after Broz Tito. We can make the list longer.

That is why we should worry over Syria without Assads. Will the country slide into chaos like the list we have shared?

The problem with leaders who overstay in power is that they seal all political safety valves, leaving citizens with pent-up anger and grudges.  When citizens get that opportunity, usually after the end of a regime, they have a lot to sort, often violently.

That’s the beauty of democracy. Through voting, citizens let off their anger and that diminishes the chances of violence. Free and fair elections are the best bulwark against political instability.

The Assad family, like others before, left the country to enjoy their lives elsewhere. The rest of the citizens can sort themselves out. The destinations are usually countries that have vested interests in the countries they leave behind. Russia has geopolitical interests in Syria with a naval and air force base.

One wishes leaders are like Jesus or shepherds, never forsaking their flocks. They should be like ship captains, the last to leave a sinking ship.

What next for Syria?

It’s an open question why Syrian allies such as Iran, Russia and Hezbollah did not help Assad as they did in 2011. Were they distracted by war in Lebanon, Gaza and Ukraine? Did the wars in Lebanon and Gaza have such geopolitical significance?

Trouble in Syria has already started with Israel settling grudges before the new leaders settle in. They have occupied part of Golan Heights and destroyed military assets, not to fall to the wrong hands. They seem to believe an elephant does not die with its tusks.

Which other countries will follow suit—Turkiye, Russia, Iran or USA? They all have strategic interest in Syria. Will the fall of Assad have more geopolitical repercussions? Will the fall stem the rising Russian influence particularly in the Sahel?

The new Syrian leaders belong to the former rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. HTS has to compete with other groups that fought against Assad. Each group has its sponsors, which raises the stakes further. Will they come together as partners or fight each other?

Will the current leader get intoxicated with power and behave like the leaders they have replaced? Will the Alawite-Sunni differences be amplified or muted?

It’s too early to predict. But one wishes all the rival groups can sit and share power. Syria is for all Syrians and 50 years plus of Assad rule were bad enough.

Let reason return to this beautiful land, and children grow into adults and to their potential, more so as Christmas approaches. Remember Damascus in the Bible? This should be Syria’s Damascus moment—after all Damascus is Syria’s capital.