The big face-off between Raila and Ruto takes another twist

After daring ODM leader Raila Odinga for months to declare his candidature, Deputy President William Ruto has finally got what he was asking for.

It is the Azimio la Umoja Movement against his UDA party that are now slated to face-off in another hotly contested election in August next year.

The battle between Raila and Ruto now moves to the next phase, with other key players like the One Kenya Alliance yet to pick its candidate with about seven months to D-Day.

Among the big challenges for the two leading contenders now is the choice of a running mate that many analysts believe will be from Mt Kenya region.

“It is tricky. From January, Kenyans will be watching keenly on who will go first. It will make or break the chances of whoever doesn’t get it right,” says Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University.

Then there is the challenge of winning as many voters as possible in the Western and lower Eastern and Coast regions, where OKA presidential aspirants could complicate chances of both candidates.

Some analysts also argue that the big face-off between Raila and Ruto is already building up into what will be a grand run-off because neither candidate will get the required 50+1 winning margin.

Running mate headache

Although Raila and Ruto have not addressed the running mate conundrum, analysts argue that it will be among key determinants of the outcome.

“The choice of running mate will determine this coming election but for Raila, Peter Munya, Peter Kenneth or Governor Lee Kinyanjui will not add much value,” says Prof Naituli.

It is emerging that leaders in Mt Kenya region are divided over the choice of Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua. Some argue she will give Raila’s bid advantage.

Apart from the fact that Mt Kenya region is vote-rich, analysts also concur that picking a woman could be an advantage.

Prof Naituli however argues that the approach hinted by the Mt Kenya Foundation leadership of hand picking a running mate for Raila could hand Ruto easy victory.

He also argues that both Raila and Ruto will keep each other guessing, making it difficult to know who will make the first move of picking a running mate.

Names floated so far for Raila’s running mate include Kenneth, Munya, Kinyanjui, Karua, Laikipia Governor Ndiritu Muriithi and a top official of a local bank.

Those who have been cited in Ruto’s UDA camp include Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wah and a host of other allies from the region.

Prof Peter Kagwanja of the Africa Policy Institute says Mt Kenya region has diverse interests and that is why both Raila and Ruto will have large numbers of people in their camps.

“It is also about making money but there are those of us who think a straight person who is a stickler to the rules will help them make clean money,” says Kagwanja.

Sibling rivalry

He also advises Raila that if he wants an easy victory, he has no choice but to simply choose a woman running mate.

Ruto, it appears, has made a big impression among youth, gains that Raila will now embark on reversing as he moves into the election year.

Raila will also have to deal with sibling rivalry especially in the Mt Kenya East region where CS Munya has had differences with Governor Kiraitu Murungi.

Kiraitu, a friend of Raila was conspicuously missing at the Azimio la Umoja meeting at Kasarani on Friday, that saw Munya bask in the sun as one of the main speakers.

“If you give Munya time to be the speaker, then Kiraitu will not come. That is Mt Kenya politics. Although Karua was not there, she is okay with what the region wants for her,” said Kagwanja.

Another area to watch is the process of coalition-building especially in the newly launched Azimio la Umoja Movement because Ruto appears to be building his party as he moves along as indicated during his Nyanza tour recently.

Prof Gitile, however, argues that not many so-called kingpins will be keen to join either Raila or Ruto now because there is likely to be a run-off.

“Nobody will win in the first round and they will therefore wait to get into negotiations after seeing concrete policy and position outcomes after the first round,” he claims.

He, therefore, doesn’t expect ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi or Wiper’s Kalonzo Kalonzo or even Speaker Justin Muturi to work with Azimio la Umoja or UDA before the August 9 polls.

He sees Ruto benefiting more from such an eventuality, because he already has a support base among the youth and some small parties registered by some MPs in his camp.

Ruto has said he is ready to face his opponent, but warned Raila to be wary of those pushing for his presidency. Speaking at the Turkana cultural festival yesterday, his allies said the ODM leader could be betrayed. They said the genesis of the scheme was witnessed in Kasarani, when key political figures skipped the Azimio La Umoja Convention.

Ichung’wah asked Kenyans, particularly the pastoral communities, to rally behind UDA.

Regional kingpins

By supporting a national party like UDA, Turkana Governor Josphat Nanok said Kenyans would avoid the trap of selfish politicians promoting the sprouting of small and regional parties.

Political analysts Martin Andati argues that without the former Nasa principals on his side, Raila will find it hard to win. “Our politics is still so much based on kingpins and so the absence of Musalia, Wetang’ula and Kalonzo creates a big gap,” says Andati.

In eastern region, Raila will banking on allies like Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, while Ruto has the backing of among others former Assistant minister Gideon Ndambuki who served under him in former President Mwai Kibaki’s government.

Andati says pressure is being mounted on Kalonzo through the three Ukambani governors to bring him on board in the Raila camp.

He pointed out that being a party leader, Ngilu could also be a key partner in the Azimio Movement coalition partnership if it forms the next government.

He argues that so far Azimio is guaranteed to get the remaining faction of the Jubilee party, represented by vice chairman David Murathe at the convention in Kasarani.

They may also get Kanu because it has already signed a partnership with Jubilee and other small parties like Alfred Mutua’s Maendeleo Chap Chap and Kivutha Kibwana’s Muungano Party among others.

Andati says Azimio is basically trying to replicate what Kibaki did when he joined the Party of National Unity (PNU) in 2007, picking what had remained of Narc and bringing a weakened Ford Kenya, Narc Kenya and other parties.

But the difference is that Kibaki had a solid Mt Kenya support and Uhuru’s Kanu faction unlike now when Ruto, Raila and OKA are fighting for a piece of that pie.