Trump's comeback must not undermine global climate action

This weeks' re-election of Donald Trump has raised significant concerns among climate justice advocates, scientists, and policymakers regarding the future of the global fight against climate change. For the past three decades, the world has struggled to unite as it did in 2015 when the Paris Agreement was signed. Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in June 2017, which officially took effect in November 2020, signaled a troubling shift away from the global consensus on the urgent need to address human-driven climate change. This decision came at a time when the scientific community had largely reached an agreement on the threat of climate change, its human-made causes, and the necessity for swift, coordinated action. This was not the first instance of the United States stepping back from a global effort to combat climate change. Notably, Joe Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement on his first day in office in January 2021.

In the 1980s, a heightened awareness of climate risks prompted the global community to acknowledge the reality of anthropogenic climate change, primarily fueled by unchecked greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. In response, major oil companies initiated misinformation campaigns to downplay scientific evidence, asserting that the warnings were exaggerated and economically detrimental. Decades later, it came to light that these companies had been aware of the risks associated with fossil fuel-driven climate change as early as the late 1960s but chose to prioritise profits over environmental safety. Records from the American Petroleum Institute in 1968, as well as findings from Exxon in the late 1970s and 1980s, indicated this knowledge, yet the company established the Global Climate Coalition to cast doubt on the scientific basis of concerns regarding fossil fuel emissions.

The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) marked the first significant global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It recognised that developed countries, having contributed most to the climate crisis, bore a greater responsibility for combating climate change. This initiative led to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, a landmark treaty aimed at reducing emissions among industrialised nations. The protocol was based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" (CBDR), which acknowledges that while all nations have an obligation to address global environmental destruction, they are not equally responsible.

However, the progress of the Kyoto Protocol was hindered when the George W Bush administration announced the withdrawal of the United States in 2001, citing economic concerns and scepticism fueled by misinformation campaigns. Despite the absence of the largest historical emitter, other parties to the protocol collectively achieved a 12.5 per cent reduction in emissions from 1990 to 2012, surpassing the target of 4.7 per cent. While the Kyoto Protocol laid critical groundwork, it was limited by the non-participation of the US and the lack of binding targets for major developing emitters like China and India, which contributed to a continued rise in global emissions.

The push for a more inclusive climate framework has intensified as scientific data reveals rapid changes in the global climate, including melting ice sheets and rising sea levels, which threaten coastal communities and low-lying nations. The annual Conferences of Parties (COPs) have continued to build momentum, culminating in the Paris Agreement, also known as COP21. This landmark international climate agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5–2°C above pre-industrial levels. It encompasses all countries, allows for the establishment of national targets with reviews every five years, and offers mechanisms for adaptation as well as mechanisms for loss and damage funding for most vulnerable nations.

The Paris Agreement has significantly influenced the interpretation of international climate obligations and has become a foundation for individuals and groups seeking to hold their governments accountable for failing to meet climate targets.