William Ruto risks falling into the trap of not getting the truth

President William Ruto at the Turkana Tourism and Cultural Festival on Oct 25, 2024. [PCS]

President William Ruto’s administration and the political class that comprises his governing coalition increasingly looks like a cast of mindless praise singers.

The rapidity with which Parliament impeached and convicted former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua illustrated the lopsidedness of executive-legislative relations. Parliament is no longer an independent and co-equal branch of government.

Within the administration itself, a cult of personality around the president is slowly taking root. Previously independent-thinking advisers have become indistinguishable from cheap online bloggers for hire. All this, coupled with the random reports of alleged abductions and murders by the state, creates a creeping sense of ever-decreasing space for freedom of thought and expression.

If these trends continue, the biggest loser will be President Ruto. In political science, we have a concept called “the dictator’s information problem.”

This is a situation whereby as a consequence of a leader amassing too much power, being perceived to prize loyalty over talent, and becoming allergic to facts, his underlings increasingly find themselves having to fudge figures in order to please the boss or to falsify their beliefs about specific policy measures.

Ruto has a real danger of falling into this trap. Let’s start with Parliament. Open deliberations in Parliament serve an important informational function. They tell us what different representatives actually think, and might actually help improve suggested policies.

For example, if Parliament had bothered to honestly debate the Finance Bill 2024 we likely would not have had protests that resulted in the storming of the Parliament buildings. The same goes for the various policymaking units within the executive.

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Being able to gather accurate information and conduct sound analysis is critical for successful policy implementation. Therefore, it should bother all thinking Kenyans that we seem to be permanently locked in a world where secretive deals, rather than the public impact of specific policies, are the primary drivers of policy choices.

It is hard to cycle out of a dictator’s information problem. Once there is a perception that the only way to get ahead is to signal mindless loyalty, then it does not matter whether the leader himself prefers to have accurate information.

Furthermore, certain types of people who do not care about facts or sound analysis then self-select to join the administration.

All this to say that President Ruto should be careful about what he wishes for. The wages of total centralised power is total ignorance of reality.

The writer is a Professor at Georgetown University