Kenya braces for IMF talks amid debt crisis

The Ruto government is bracing for pivotal discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the country seeks to secure the renewal of its multi-billion-shilling lending programme, set to expire in just four months. 

On April 2, 2021, the IMF Executive Board approved a 38-month arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Kenya, amounting to about $2.34 billion (Sh303 billion). 

This programme, established during the former Uhuru Kenyatta administration, aimed to bolster Kenya’s economic recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic and mitigate debt vulnerabilities.

 While the programme has so far disbursed billions of shillings to support the economy, it concludes in April 2025, leaving the cash-strapped Kenya Kwanza administration grappling with urgent budgetary needs. 

The upcoming talks are expected to coincide with a high-profile visit from IMF Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke, who will engage with government officials and key stakeholders over the next two days beginning today (Monday). 

“Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke will travel to Nairobi, Kenya, on December 9th and 10th as part of our ongoing engagements,” said IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack. “During his visit, DMD Clarke will meet with authorities and other key stakeholders, with updates to follow.”

Clarke assumed the role of Deputy Managing Director at the IMF on October 31, 2024, bringing with him to the IMF a strong commitment to reform. 

Prior to joining the IMF, he served as Jamaica’s Minister of Finance and the Public Service, as well as a Member of Parliament, since March 2018.  Before that, he was the Ambassador of Economic Affairs from 2016, during which he guided Jamaica’s economy toward a more robust and sustainable future according to official records. 

Clarke was particularly instrumental in spearheading ambitious national reforms, including establishing central bank independence and creating an independent fiscal commission.  His efforts extended to comprehensive reforms in tax policy, public body governance, public procurement, public sector compensation, and public investment management. 

Notably, he led Jamaica’s economic response to the Covid-19 pandemic with innovative and targeted policy measures, as well as overseeing the privatization and establishment of public-private partnerships for major infrastructure projects. 

Under his leadership, Jamaica implemented a multi-layered disaster risk financing model and became the first small country to independently sponsor a catastrophe bond with World Bank support. 

Clarke’s tenure is marked by a staunch commitment to reform and economic resilience.

As the government prepares for these negotiations, it confronts a series of challenges that could complicate the renewal process. 

Sources indicate that IMF officials are poised to impose stringent conditions on any new programme, necessitating clear evidence of fiscal discipline and a commitment to structural reforms. 

Kenya’s public debt has surged alarmingly in recent years, with Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) weekly bulletin showing it hit Sh10.79 trillion in September raising sustainability concerns and prompting urgent calls for reforms, including potential tax increases and expenditure cuts. 

In addition, Kenya is pushing ahead with plans to secure a Sh193 billion ($1.5 billion) loan from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), despite IMF warnings that this could exacerbate the country’s precarious debt situation. 

The IMF which is opposed to the loan has urged caution regarding this loan, fearing it may further complicate Kenya’s fiscal landscape. This issue is likely to be a focal point during Clarke’s visit.

“Securing a favourable deal with the IMF is crucial for Kenya’s economic recovery,” remarked a government official familiar with the negotiations. “However, implementing these reforms without triggering social unrest will be a delicate balancing act.”

Corruption remains a significant concern, with the IMF, often viewed as a lender of last resort for developing nations, emphasising the need for transparency and good governance. The IMF has confirmed it would send governance experts to Kenya to help Kenya revamp its war on graft. 

Any continued perception of mismanagement could jeopardise the renewal process and complicate discussions further. Public sentiment is also a critical factor, as widespread economic hardships have led to rising discontent among Kenyans.

Amid increasing fiscal pressures, the Kenya Kwanza administration is poised to introduce a series of new taxes, a move that has sparked significant pushback from various sectors of society. 

Critics argue that proposed tax hikes—such as increased levies on fuel and income—could further strain the finances of everyday Kenyans. While the government contends that these measures are essential to stabilise the economy and meet IMF conditions for programme renewal, the backlash from Kenyans underscores the delicate balance the Ruto administration must strike between fiscal responsibility and public sentiment.