Why Ruto rivals must flee from ghosts of FORD

The coming presidential contest will be exciting and whose outcome will be decided by the Gen-Z factor. Since the June protests, young Kenyans have become a major force, buoyed by their numbers.

Thus far, Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i are among those out to challenge President William Ruto for the top job in 2027.

Mr Omtatah has formed a committee to research and test the waters for his bid. Dr Matiang’i, on the other hand, is reportedly working with some Canadian consultants to propel his State House bid.

Other names being floated are former Chief Justice David Maraga and former Makueni Governor Kivutha Kibwana. Meanwhile, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has declared he fits the bill and refuses to be anyone’s running mate.

But as these ‘new blood’ dream big, they will have to woo Gen-Zs. Anyone hoping to win, not just the presidency but any seat, needs the goodwill of young voters to stand a real chance. However, there’s fear that most of the presidential hopefuls will misjudge the moment.

Overconfidence, disunity and an inability to form broad coalitions will lead them to repeat mistakes of the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) in 1992.

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FORD was a powerful force in 1991 during the agitation for multi-party politics. It united politicians, activists, and former Kanu members, who were against Kanu's rule. Midway, internal differences led to the outfit’s fragmentation.

Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Martin Shikuku and Kenneth Matiba could not reconcile their differences, and FORD splintered into Ford-Asili, Ford-People, and Ford-Kenya. As a result, Kanu triumphed in the 1992 polls despite the initial opposition promise.

This is my prediction: Those challenging President Ruto in 2027 will fall into a similar trap of disunity.

First, they’ve overestimated their popularity. Two, uniting behind a single candidate will be tricky. Three, some won’t win our confidence and finally, the youth vote will elude them since they don’t fully identify with Gen-Z’s worldview.

Still, not all these newcomers fully meet leadership qualities set by philosophies like Confucianism. In Confucian thought, leadership is tied to personal virtue, wisdom and experience. Only those who have been tried and tested through experience and moral challenges are best suited to lead.

The hopefuls will also be examined through the lens of Realpolitik by Niccolò Machiavelli. In this view of leadership, leaders must be capable of navigating power dynamics effectively. No doubt, Mr Omtatah’s public litigation record is notable but does not prove enough political mettle to lead a country.

Justice Maraga and Prof Kibwana are right for the job in terms of virtue and experience but their age is a disadvantage.

As for Mr Natembeya, he needs more time to mature politically. The governor, for now, should concentrate on building his ‘Tawe’ movement.

Dr Matiang'i, too, has good prospects building from his experience running the Interior, ICT and Education dockets.

But in all these, what would it say about Kenya’s leadership if those who previously used State power to shut down TV stations and disregard court orders were to be entrusted with leading the country? Undermining basic freedoms has all the ingredients of totalitarianism.

For the record, President Ruto is the man to beat. Despite criticisms surrounding the Kenya Kwanza performance, he has time to recover lost ground, if any. He is a seasoned politician who understands the game pretty well.

With Azimio chief Raila Odinga by his side, Ruto’s chances will equally be strengthened by divisions that will hit the opposition in the nick of time.

It’s unbelievable how the president moved crowds in Kisumu on Tuesday. Knowing Kenyans well, they will stick with Ruto rather than the unknown.

Ruto will be the sole horse competing donkeys. Comparing him to the rest of the pack is like pairing a cake with githeri. The so-called ‘new blood’ will be a stillbirth.

The writer is a communications practitioner.