Second martial law impeachment vote looms for President Yoon

South Korea's opposition leader warned his ruling party colleagues on Friday that "history will remember" if they do not back the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, with just over 24 hours until a vote to remove him from office.

Yoon's short-lived imposition of South Korea's first martial law in over four decades plunged the country's vibrant and combative democracy into some of its worst political turmoil in years.

An attempt to remove him from office last Saturday failed when lawmakers from the ruling People Power Party (PPP) boycotted the impeachment motion.

But after a week of back-door politicking and a mounting investigation into Yoon and his inner circle, analysts now say the main opposition Democratic Party may have better luck with its second attempt.

Saturday's impeachment vote will take place around 5:00 pm (0800 GMT), with Yoon charged with "insurrectionary acts undermining the constitutional order" for his martial law bid.

Two hundred votes are needed for it to pass, meaning opposition lawmakers must convince eight ruling party colleagues to defect.

On Friday, the leader of the Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, implored the PPP to support the president's removal from office.

"What the lawmakers must protect is neither Yoon nor the ruling People Power Party but the lives of the people wailing out in the freezing streets," Lee said.

"Please join in supporting the impeachment vote tomorrow. History will remember and record your choice."

Two ruling party lawmakers supported the motion last week.

And as of Friday noon, seven ruling party lawmakers have pledged to support impeachment -- leaving the vote on a knife edge.

But members of the opposition are confident they will get the votes.

Lawmaker Kim Min-seok said Friday he was "99 percent" sure the impeachment will pass.

Ball with the court

Should it pass, Yoon will be suspended from office while South Korea's Constitutional Court deliberates.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will step in as the interim president during that time.

The court will then have 180 days to rule on Yoon's future. If it backs his removal, Yoon will become the second president in South Korean history to be impeached.

There is also precedent for the court to block impeachment: in 2004, then-President Roh Moo-hyun was removed by parliament for alleged election law violations and incompetence.

But the Constitutional Court later reinstated him.

The court also currently only has six judges, meaning their decision would need to be unanimous.

And should the vote fail, Yoon can still face "legal responsibility" for the martial law bid, Kim Hyun-jung, a researcher at the Korea University Institute of Law, told AFP.

"This is clearly an act of insurrection," she said.

"Even if the impeachment motion does not pass, the President's legal responsibilities under the Criminal Code... cannot be avoided."

'So angry'

Yoon has remained unapologetic and defiant as the fallout from his disastrous martial law has deepened.

In a televised address, he vowed on Thursday to fight "until the very last minute" and doubled down on unsubstantiated claims the opposition was in league with the country’s communist foes.

Thousands have taken to the streets of Seoul since Yoon's martial law declaration to demand his resignation and jailing.

Yoon's approval rating -- never very high -- has plummeted to 11 percent, according to a Gallup Korea poll released Friday.

The same poll showed 75 percent now support his impeachment.

Protesters run the gamut of South Korean society -- from K-pop fans waving glowsticks to retirees and blue-collar workers.

"Impeachment is a must and we must fight relentlessly," Kim Sung-tae, a 52-year-old worker at a company that makes car parts, told AFP.

"We're fighting for the restoration of democracy."

Teacher Kim Hwan-ii agreed.

"I'm so angry that we all have to pay the price for electing this president."