It is an unintended consequence of the Ukraine war. Russia is using Ukraine to recover and project power that was lost after the old Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. She is using a model beloved by modern capitalists, outsourcing. The Wagner group seems like the private wing of the Russian military, able to reach out where it's needed and when needed. The newest destination is West Africa, the Sahel.
A drowning man will clutch to a straw. The hollow nations of West Africa will clutch to any helper, including the Wagner group. They are battling Islamic rebels emboldened by their hollowness. The site of Nigeriens waving the Russian flag on the streets after the coup was not a comedy.
Build institutions
It demonstrates how determined Russia is to export her influence, and is willing to use the barrel of the gun. Remember Syria before that? If the French had built strong institutions, the Sahel and the rest of West Africa would be more prosperous, and more stable, less beholden to individuals.
I hope I am not biased but Britons tried to build institutions.
They even rode on existing institutions. Remember the indirect rule?
The local chiefs and principalities in India? This system ran the empire in India and West Africa, notably the vast of Nigeria. Maybe, Britain respected traditional institutions because it's a kingdom unlike France which was very republican after the revolution.
Why did Britons do away with our kingdoms as they kept theirs? I could be Prince Iraki or Duke of Somewhereshire. When Uhuru came and Britain let her colonies go. They went through the learning curve much earlier. Remember coups in Ghana, Nigeria and Uganda?
We are not beholden to the UK like West Africa to France. We have built and tested our institutions. Annulling the polls in 2017 was the best thing for Kenya. We can now handle any political crisis.
The former French colonies seem to have avoided "dilution" by other influences like Chinese, Americans, and Indians among others. Which foreign influence is dominant in Kenya? The political crisis in the three former French colonies will not be sorted overnight.
It will take time to build new institutions that outlast individuals. My fear is that West Africans could replace France with another master, Russia and her strategic interests.
It's the ordinary citizens who bear the brunt of these power games. Russia could prolong the building of institutions by supplanting her own systems incompatible with hosts. The contrast between the UK and France is evident at their highest levels of government. In the UK, the current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak came from one of the British colonies. Can the same happen in France?
A bigger concern is the domino theory that more West African countries will fall into the Russian orbit. Will the West - read the US - and her allies stop that when Europe is under threat from Russia? Is the Ukraine war part of a Russian grand strategy to regain power and influence beyond her borders? The Russian success in the Sahel has rattled the West, which is unlikely to act.
The ghosts of Afghanistan and Vietnam are yet to be exorcised. Russia is more likely to use force than the West. Remember Syria again? We had predicted that the Ukraine war was a means to a new world order. And Africa, it seems is part of that new order.