Forget Covid-19, the next pandemic will be more expensive

Prof Matilu Mwau, a virologist, argues that future pandemics are inevitable as infectious agents for instance Ebola, Lassa fever, Hantaan virus, Marburg, and new influenza may be reported.

"But Kenya is now more prepared and the surprise that Covid-19 came with, won't be the case with other pandemics, especially if we continue investing in preventive measures and public health systems," says Prof Mwau.

The researcher attributed the resurgence of infections this July to an interplay between vaccinations and previous infections.

"If we had not vaccinated and experienced Covid-19, and failed to adhere to containment measures, the positivity rate could be higher, with about 40 per cent infection rate," explains Prof Mwau.

Prof Thumbi Mwangi of Washington State University and Co-director, Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, observes that Covid infections might be from a new variant or waning of vaccines.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) also warned that the cost of the next pandemic is likely to exceed those of Covid-19. Its Strategic Preparedness, Readiness, and Response plan 2022 recommends swift and coordinated action to strengthen the global architecture for pandemic preparedness and response backed by necessary financing.

Dr Willis Akhwale, chair of the Covid-19 Vaccine Taskforce, concurred but added that there is need to strengthen surveillance, improve diagnosis and information sharing by counties.

Dr Akhwale reckons there is no cause for alarm regarding infections which are mild because of immunity attained through infections and vaccination.

"But people should pick the jab as the virus keeps mutating and nobody wants to be a statistic."

Dr Moses Masika, a virologist and Kavi Institute of Clinical Research, says Covid-19 is still capable of causing severe disease.

"We should all take measures to protect ourselves, by picking the jab, and wearing face-masks especially when in groups," says Masika.

Prof Mwau says infections have economic implications besides straining health systems and every single person who is knocked out of work or knocked out of earth is a problem.

Kenya Healthcare Federation Chief Executive Anastasia Nyalita applauded the agreement between Kenya and Moderna to set up a Sh60 billion vaccine manufacturing plant.

"There is need to scale up Africa's pharmaceutical capacity to provide access to quality medical products given a quarter of global vaccine volume is expected to increase with the region's estimated 2.5 per cent annual population growth."