Fact-check: Uhuru Kenyatta’s Sagana 3 speech

President Uhuru Kenyatta at State Lodge Sagana in Nyeri County on February 23, during a meeting with leaders and representatives of special interest groups [Courtesy]

On Wednesday, President Uhuru Kenyatta lashed out at his critics, including Deputy President William Ruto, who say the fortunes of Mt Kenya region suffered under his watch.

Kenyatta gave a check list of what he said were his administration’s achievements for the region since he took over power in 2013.

Some of these achievements include more than doubling the length of tarmacked roads in the region to 2,656km, building 14 more markets from four in 2013, and connecting 190,973 households to piped water.

In Sagana, the President also talked of how he redoubled the size of the economy and completed all the incomplete projects left by former President Mwai Kibaki.

But did the President who now wants Mt Kenya to support Azimio La Umoja’s Raila Odinga get all his facts right? We take a closer look at the key points in his address.

Data shows that the Jubilee government has rewarded loyal voters, a position confirmed by President Kenyatta who insisted he had done more for Mt Kenya than any other region.

Mt Kenya region, for example, had the longest stretch of road to be covered under the on-going Roads 2000 Programme in which the government hopes to cover about 10,000km through a public-private partnership arrangement over the next three years. 

The programme seeks to improve rural roads and train small contractors in the routine maintenance of roads using labour-based methods, according to the Economic Survey.

Of the 5,328km of roads to be covered, Mt Kenya counties of Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Nyandarau, Murang’a, Nyeri, Meru, Laikipia, Embu and Tharaka/Nithi took up 1,466km, about 27per cent of the total roads to be covered.   

The President also noted that Amani party’s Musalia Mudavadi, during his stint as the Finance Minister between 1993 and 1997, barely managed a budget half of the money that his government moves to counties.

There is some truth to this. In his first financial year in 1993/94, Mudavadi managed a budget of Sh179.6 billion, which is less than half what the devolved governments received in the financial year that ended in June 2021.

Not even half

“Tell him that all the money he was in charge of in all the years he was Finance minister is not even half of what I give to the governors who are here,” said Uhuru.

Mudavadi was a Finance minister in the President Moi’s Cabinet between 1993 and 1997.

It is true that the economy has more than doubled from Sh5.3 trillion since President Kenyatta took over in 2013.

However, the size of the economy-measured through what is known as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or the sum of all the goods produced in the country, is yet to hit the Sh13 trillion as the President claimed.  

By end of 2020, the last time the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) released GDP figures, the country’s total output was valued at Sh10.7 trillion.

Moreover, it seems like under Kenyatta’s presidency prices of goods and services-more than the quantity of goods and services- have grown faster.  

GDP that does not adjust for increase in prices, which is what Kenyatta is citing, is known as nominal GDP. When you adjust for increase in prices you get what is known as real GDP - a true measure of a country’s economic wealth.

Leaders and representatives of special interest at Sagana State Lodge yesterday [Courtesy]

Public debt

For example, former President Kibaki grew real GDP by 474 per cent in the first eight years. During the same period, Kibaki grew public debt by 118 per cent.

On the other hand, real GDP under Uhuru’s first eight years grew by a paltry 37 per cent while debt grew by 372 per cent.

Part of the reason for Kibaki’s huge growth in real GDP was that he was coming from a low base, having inherited what by then was described as an economy in intensive care unit, according to economist Dr Joy Kiiru.

In his speech to a restive region, the President also said he had promised to complete all the projects that his predecessor started and now “there is no one project that was started by the government of Mwai Kibaki that I have not completed.” 

Kibaki became President in 2002 and was in 2013 succeeded by Uhuru who is now at the tail end of his second term.

World Bank’s 2020 Public Expenditure Review shows President Kenyatta is not factual about completion of projects.

At the end of June 2018, the World Bank report says there were 522 stalled projects across all the Medium Term Expenditure Framework sectors.

World Bank sourced the data from government’s Integrated Financial Management Information System (Ifmis).

According to the report, the total budgetary resources required to complete the projects was estimated at Sh1.1 trillion.

World Bank analysis showed projects started during the first medium term plan (MTP 1), which ran between the year 2008 and 2012—Kibaki era—, make up 71 per cent of the stalled projects.

“The projects started during the MTP I period account for 71 per cent of the project portfolio and require Sh334 billion to complete,” World Bank says.