Russia election interference in africa and the ongoing threat to democracy

Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin attends the funeral of Dmitry Menshikov, a Wagner group fighter who died in Ukraine, at the Beloostrovskoye cemetery outside St. Petersburg, Russia, on Dec. 24, 2022. [AP Photo]

Russia’s engagement in Africa, facilitated primarily through the Wagner Group, is characterized by a multifaceted agenda aimed at destabilizing democracies, propping up authoritarian regimes, facilitating arms sales, and exploiting natural resources. These activities not only undermine democratic governance but also pose significant dangers to stability and sovereignty across the African continent. The Wagner Group's operations have left a trail of human rights abuses and democratic subversion in countries like the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya, Mali, and Sudan. This group's strategies extend beyond direct military actions, encompassing covert tactics designed to manipulate public opinion and weaken democratic institutions.

A concerning aspect of Russia’s influence is its expanding reach within Africa, targeting not just countries where it is already active but also seeking new entry points through tactics like democratic destabilization. For instance, in the CAR, collusion with authoritarian regimes helps maintain control, while in more stable democracies, calculated disinformation campaigns seek to sow discord and challenge legitimate governance. In Ghana, for instance, a "freedom rally" held on August 13, 2023, was revealed to be coordinated to promote Russia’s Wagner Group. Five individuals, including pro-Russian blogger Michael Asiedu, were arrested for planning to destabilize the government. Asiedu openly discussed coup plans on a podcast, facilitated by pro-Russia propagandist Simeon Boikov, who organized and promoted the rally through Telegram channels. Rabiu Alhassan, director of FactSpace West Africa, highlighted Boikov's role in grooming participants, underscoring external manipulation within Ghana's political landscape by the Russians.

The orchestrated "freedom rally" in Ghana, orchestrated to boost the Wagner Group's profile and undermine democratic norms, is a glaring example of such interference. The subsequent arrests and disclosures shed light on the extent of external manipulation aimed at destabilizing nations during critical political junctures, such as impending elections.

Ghana is slated to hold elections in 2024, and the incident in 2023 illustrates Wagner’s intent to interfere and undermine a country’s democracy. This isn’t the first documented instance of the Wagner Group destabilizing a country gearing up for elections. In the 2019 South African elections, a dossier revealed a Wagner Group plan to interfere in the election process. The coordination was led by Russian political technologist Peter Bychkov, operating under Wagner’s former leader Prigozhin. Moscow's objective was to tarnish the reputation of leaders from the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), employing tactics such as public rhetoric, generating and spreading video content, coordinating with journalists, and producing pro-ANC (African National Congress) materials. The disinformation campaign was orchestrated through a Russian-owned NGO, the Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (Afric), masquerading as a research entity.

The Kremlin also employs the strategy of establishing bilateral agreements to strengthen relationships. Their choice of countries follows a deliberate pattern, focusing on nations where they are already present. These countries typically possess strategic resources and key geographic locations that align with Russian interests but are characterized by political instability or transitions. Senegal provides a notable example, having recently held elections marked by uncertainty regarding the sitting President's power relinquishment and the jailing of opposition leaders. Moscow seized this opportunity by signing a memorandum of understanding on human rights cooperation with Senegal just days before the scheduled elections. Senegal's strategic position in West Africa, with access to the Atlantic Ocean and borders with multiple neighboring countries, makes it crucial in the Kremlin's efforts to exert influence over the Sahel Region. This calculated move underscores Russia’s covert activities on the continent, exploiting weaknesses in democratic systems to advance its agenda to the benefit of the Kremlin.

Russia’s election interference in Africa, particularly through entities like the Wagner Group, presents an ongoing threat to democracy within the continent. The strategies employed by Russia, including disinformation campaigns, political manipulation, and support for authoritarian regimes, are not only detrimental to individual nations but also to the broader democratic fabric of Africa.

The expansion of Russian influence through destabilization tactics, such as the coordination of "freedom rallies" to promote hidden agendas, showcases the insidious nature of these interference efforts. The incidents in Ghana and South Africa highlight how vulnerable democratic processes can be when targeted by external actors seeking to sow discord and manipulate outcomes.

Moreover, the use of bilateral agreements as a guise for strategic exploitation further underscores the multifaceted approach employed by Russia to extend its influence. By capitalizing on political transitions or uncertainties in democracies, Russia aims to forge alliances that serve its geopolitical interests while undermining democratic norms and institutions.

The African continent must stand united against such interference and threats to democracy. Collaborative efforts among African nations, regional bodies like the African Union, and international partners are crucial in addressing these challenges. Strengthening cybersecurity measures, promoting media literacy, and enhancing electoral transparency are essential steps to safeguard democratic processes from external manipulation.

Additionally, fostering a culture of democratic resilience, where citizens are actively engaged, informed, and empowered, is vital. Civil society organizations, independent media, and election monitoring bodies play pivotal roles in upholding democratic values and holding leaders accountable.

African governments must prioritize national sovereignty and resilience against external interference. Building strong institutions, promoting good governance practices, and ensuring transparent electoral processes are fundamental in countering external manipulation attempts.

Ultimately, the ongoing threat of Russia’s election interference serves as a wake-up call for Africa to fortify its democratic foundations. By promoting unity, transparency, and citizen participation, the continent can navigate these challenges and emerge stronger in defending its democratic principles and sovereignty against external threats.