Sometime in September, former Uganda Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi received the shock of his life when, upon returning home in the company of friends, his wife Jacqueline told them they did not deserve dinner.
Reason? Mbabazi, as President Yoweri Museveni’s close ally, had been instrumental in ensuring Parliament approved ekisanja (removal of presidential term limits) that allowed his friend to run for the third term in 2011.
Mbabazi and Jacqueline (a confidante of Mrs Janet Museveni), according to Ugandan press, have increasingly been sidelined as Museveni deftly closed avenues that could allow his former trusted ally to challenge him for the party’s leadership in August next year.
Even though he still retains his position as the Secretary General of the governing National Resistance Movement (NRM), Mbabazi has joined a long list of ex-NRM leaders who have fallen out with Museveni.
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His removal from the cabinet brings with it challenges in NRM. The backlash is reportedly occasioned by internal strife, which has been exacerbated by desertions from Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) — the backbone of Museveni’s presidency.
Uganda goes to the polls in 2016. Museveni’s push for another term received a boost when NRM in September endorsed him as the sole candidate to face off with Uganda People’s Congress, Democratic Party and Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) among other opposition outfits.
As Attorney General Mbabazi was instrumental in the deletion of the presidential term limits. He reportedly incensed Museveni when he ‘postponed’ receiving Ush4 million (Sh130,000) meant to grease his palms, even after NRM passed a resolution clearing the president to run for another term.
As the president showed Mbabazi the door, NRM followed it up by endorsing Museveni as president for life.
However, UDPF has to deal with serious disaffection that automatically affects morale, hence rising cases of desertion headlined by escape into exile of military intelligence chief, Gen David ‘Sejusa’ Tinyefunza, now based in the United Kingdom.
In its analysis of the Ugandan leader’s troubleshooting, IHS observes that, “Museveni, who will be contesting his fifth presidential election in 2016 (his seventh presidential term in total), is almost certain to win.
The NRM is officially due to pick its prospective presidential candidate at its delegates’ conference, which will be held in late 2015.
Museveni has all but declared his candidacy after endorsing a call in August 2014 from NRM MPs who have been ‘urging’ him to stand again, after passing a motion backing him as the NRM’s sole presidential candidate.
This suggests that Mbabazi’s chances of challenging Museveni within the NRM structures are very limited or non-existent.”
Journalist and political analyst, Edris Kiggundu, in an article published in The Observer describes Mbabazi’s tribulations as, “An accident that was waiting to happen.”
He refers to the sacking of opposition leader Col Kizza Besigye as, “falling on his sword” after, as AG, he presided over the passage of laws that are likely to hinder his presidential ambitions.
“To date, Mbabazi has remained vague about his presidential ambitions. In May, when Museveni met Mbabazi, his wife Jacqueline and sister-in-law Hope Mwesigye at State House, the president reportedly expressed discomfort at Mbabazi’s vagueness.
But Mbabazi, according to sources, did not commit himself on anything,” writes Kiggundu.
He points out that the former premier ruffled feathers when in August he was the only NRM legislator who declined the Ush4 million (Sh130,000) to popularise the 2016 sole candidature resolution.