Why Kenya-Germany jobs deal is double-edged sword for workers

When President William Ruto and the Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz witnnessed the signing of declaration on Climate Development Partnership, in Sharma El-Sheikh, Egypt. [PCS]

A week ago, Germany announced that Flensburg had welcomed five bus drivers from Kenya, who would be undergoing training in a pilot project as part of the migration agreement between Kenya and Germany.  

If Kenya’s government sources are to be trusted, potentially 249,995 more Kenyans could soon be joining this inaugural batch of five in Germany.  

Like in the United States, where one of the key topics of debate ahead of the November presidential election is immigration, with a special focus on illegal immigration, Germany’s population is majorly unenthusiastic about high rates of migration into the country.  

In the Eastern states, especially, the anti-immigration sentiment is on the rise. In Saxony and Thuringia, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) was second and first respectively in the recently concluded state elections, and a possible success in Brandenburg could rubber-stamp the growing public displeasure over immigration.  

The AfD promotes nationalist demands for halts on immigration and advocates for the arming of Ukraine. The national election is next year and many from Germany’s business community have expressed fears over the party’s increasing relevance.  

The country has suffered from high rates of illegal immigration in recent years. In 2023 alone, close to 100,000 people entered Germany illegally. Extremist groups have been calling for the government to slam the brakes hard on immigration, legal or not.  

While Germany needs skilled and semi-skilled labour, unemployment remains high; it notably increased by 82,100 in July 2024. Over 2.8 million Germans are, therefore, jobless. The country’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 6 per cent.  

Expressed displeasure

The median age for Germany, according to the Worldometer, is 45.3 years. In January, Moses Kuria, then Cabinet Secretary for Public Service, said that a Kenya-Germany merger would create a formidable economy as Kenya – whose median age is 19.8 years- would offer adequate labour to help along Germany’s ageing population.  
 Social media has been a beehive of activity since President William Ruto met Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin last week and announced the signing of a deal that would send 250,000 Kenyans to the German labour market.  

On X, formerly Twitter, several German accounts expressed displeasure with the planned migration deal. One called it “biological warfare”. Another doubted the skills of immigrants “with an IQ of 70” which, according to 123test means such persons are considered cognitively impaired. Others referred to the expected immigrants as “scumbags”. 

According to a Kenyan trader in Berlin who declined to be named for fear of being attacked online or having her business boycotted, she experiences sporadic cases of racism and she fears it could get worse with time.  

“It is especially tough outside Berlin. If you read the reactions online, those coming might face a few unwelcoming individuals, especially outside Berlin, which is pretty cosmopolitan,” she says.  

Kenya trades significantly more with The United Kingdom and, in The European Union, The Netherlands than it does with Germany, and a recent meeting that this writer had with a German Member of Parliament revealed a little understanding of the African continent.  

Twice, the MP, who claimed to be interested in Africa for years, referred to the continent as having 24 countries, while seemingly unsure of whether Cairo, in Egypt, was in Africa.  

Many Germans’ limited interaction with Africa could mean that immigrant workers from the continent are largely viewed as strangers. The citizens would, therefore, be unsure of what to expect of them. The business community, while way better versed with the continent and her dynamics, is focused on a few countries, which could be thought of as trading nodes, and in meetings one will pick out Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi, Egypt and Morocco as the adversely mentioned African countries.  

In a meeting with the Kenyan community in Berlin, several Kenyans thriving in Germany asked Ruto questions that would help in settling ones that could potentially join them, while expressing several concerns they have had. 

Double taxation

Dr John Karugia, a lecturer at Humboldt University in Berlin, asked the president about the prospect of double taxation for Kenyans living and working in Germany, with Ruto saying that Kenya and Germany have signed an agreement that prohibits double taxation.  

Others asked about possible brain drain in Kenya, with top local talent unable to stay to develop the country instead, to which Ruto answered: “We have a huge young population that cannot only satisfy our industrialisation agenda in Kenya but also here in Germany., it will provide an avenue for us to tap the skills here,” he argued. 

With highly trained youth not in active employment in Kenya, the president is upbeat that working in Germany will be a win for them, for Kenya and their host country.  

While defending the move, Labour and Social Protection CS Alfred Mutua said Kenya currently faces the challenge of a million people entering the job market annually, with fewer available jobs than needed. 

But Kenyans on social media continue to feel disenfranchised, with one accusing the president of sending Kenyans for jobs abroad while creating jobs locally, referring to the controversial Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA)-Adani deal which could employ several Indian nationals, and which saw a recent demonstration paralyse activities at Kenya’s busiest transportation hub.  

The Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs released a statement saying that remittances from 4 million Kenyans in the diaspora have exceeded foreign exchange earnings from key sectors such as coffee, tourism, tea and horticulture. Data from The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs of 2020 puts the number of Kenyans in the diaspora to slightly over half a million, however. There is no inclusion of those working in The Gulf. 
 President Ruto reiterated that Kenya and Germany are friends with a history going back over a century, “since the explorers and missionaries came to Kenya”. 

Balancing interests

Subtly, Kenya and Germany have always had close ties and, amid the questions over the newest deal, this was just another step in the journey and it should be seen as such. 

But is Kenya’s dalliance with Germany at the expense of relationships with other trade partners, and is it self-annihilating?  

Asked by a Deutsche Welle reporter about balancing interests between China and Europe, Ruto said: “The whole world is framed around interests, and we have absolutely no difficulties in pursuing our interests in the East and the West. When our interests converge, we work together.” 

Statements from German and Kenyan authorities have conflicted at some point; while one seemed very enthusiastic about the partnership, the other showed great restraint.  

Immediately after Kenya’s government announced the signing of that deal to ship up to a quarter of a million nationals, and there was great furore about it following posts by several media houses, Germany’s Federal Ministry for The Interior swiftly responded, 

“This information is false. The agreement between Germany and Kenya does not include any numbers or quotas of skilled workers who can work in Germany.

All applicants must fulfil the strict requirements of the German Skilled Immigration Act.” 
 While Kenyans abroad are seemingly happy to welcome peers who find work in their host countries, it is unclear how the adaptation works out for Germany’s new crop of immigrant workers.

So immense have been speculations, and heat on the internet, that a fake post appeared on X over a week ago claiming that Germany had suspended the Schengen visa, allowing entry into several European countries. 

For many, this was Germany’s clearest statement that the workers were unwelcome. The German Embassy in Nairobi, however, rushed to quash the claims.  
“By European Union law, Germany has introduced temporary border controls to address rising irregular entries into Germany.

Germany remains committed to the integrity of the Schengen area. Travellers to Germany with a Schengen Visa continue to enjoy free movement,” noted the Embassy.   

If the tensions subside and Kenyans travel and adapt to Germany, it could be a win for every party involved. While that happens, many hold onto the hopes that even locally, more jobs will be created in the coming days so that the exodus to Europe is more out of choice than total desperation.