The war in ODM: Raila's moment of truth amid a tower of babel

ODM leader Raila Odinga. [File, Standard]

The ongoing nationwide protests might have crumbled President William Ruto’s proposed taxes and part of his Cabinet, but its spiral effect is rapidly threatening opposition leader Raila Odinga’s mighty ODM party.

A disastrous handling of the Gen Z-led demos has opened a surreal nightmare for the ODM chief and reopened sibling rivalries that have been simmering in the Orange party since losing the 2022 elections.

The Standard has established that the party is split with some members pushing to watch from afar as Ruto’s administration gets battered, while others want the party to help the president restore calm.

This is compounded by the huge appetite for plum Cabinet slots by some of Raila’s allies who are leading an internal push for the party to seal a deal with Kenya Kwanza.

Insiders claim some allies have already accepted Ruto’s job offers and are only waiting for their confirmation despite opposition within the party’s ranks.

The cracks in the 19-year-old party appear to be widening each day as members feud over the proposal to hold talks with Ruto. The party’s position has also changed several times.

This is happening as Raila’s own response depicts a catalog of flipflops on his stand on the protests. He has supported the protests, pushed for talks, declared support for Ruto and his administration, and eaten back his own words to dismiss coalition with Ruto.

But as this happens, his ODM house is on fire and there are fears the seismic shifts could burn the unity that the party has thrived on for nearly two decades to remain a force to reckon.

Yesterday, as the party issued a statement distancing itself from an interest in a slice of Ruto’s Cabinet and vowing to disown members who might take up positions, Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma was calling for the president to unveil the next batch of CSs.

He claimed they are waiting for the president to present the list of CSs containing Raila’s allies, vowing to ensure they accept the entire list of Ruto’s new Cabinet.

“I request the president that within the week, we want to see the other appointments that Baba was to forward to him. And we want all of them approved,” he said.

But he is not alone. Other senior party officials led by chairman John Mbadi, deputy party leaders Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho are also pro-talks in recent days.

According to party insiders, the three hope to be considered in the list prepared by Raila’s team as part of an effort to be incorporated in Ruto’s Cabinet.

A group of allies have lined up behind them and are pushing for unity talks with Ruto and are optimistic that the president will unveil his next batch of CSs, with ODM stalwarts among the names.

Yesterday, Mbadi downplayed the cracks in the party and described it as a democracy in progress. “We always have systems of engaging. We are the only party that meets regularly, have all organs,” Mr Mbadi says.

He believes any disagreement in the party would be resolved and it will still remain. “We can’t split the party by disagreeing. People can never have the same frame of mind,” he says.

Another senior ODM official claimed the faction eyeing government slots is piling pressure on Raila to endorse talks with the government with a view of forming a government of national unity.

“Some party members have lost their morals and it is really heartbreaking. How can they be fighting to join Ruto’s government? They are portraying us as tainted and driven by pure greed,” said the MP.

The legislator claimed the group eyeing freebies from the government have gone to the extent of demonising their partners in the Azimio coalition.

According to him, the faction has been meeting Ruto’s emissaries without the blessings of the party leadership.

His comments come at a time when the party is also facing the threats of breaking up with its partners in Azimio as they push to rescue Ruto.

This further compounds Raila’s woes. Although Azimio enjoys the majority of elected members in the coalition outfit, the other parties have strengthened its position in opposition.

In the last couple of days, a war of words has erupted between Raila’s inner circle, with some playing out in the open over the push by some party members for the party to accept cabinet slots in Ruto’s administration.

Barely two days ago, Mbadi hit out at Siaya Governor James Orengo for condemning the push by the party to join Ruto’s regime.

And yesterday, Orengo continued with its criticism against any agreement with Ruto and described it as a disaster. “Taking CS position in the name of ODM betrays the principles of the Constitution and the progressive movement which the party represents. It is absolute treachery and an act of political cannibalism. Even hyenas are not as thirsty to eat the dead,” said Orengo.

Observers, however, believe the developments could mark the beginning of the end of Raila’s mega party that built and destroyed many careers.

Communication specialist Charles Nyambuga says if Raila insists on the Ruto line, it will split Azimio and even ODM. “Orengo and Mbadi have already taken opposite stances,” Dr Nyambuga says

Communication strategist Barrack Muluka says some people have seen a good opportunity to fish in the Kenya Kwanza troubled waters. “Their focus on the gravy train is what’s disguising itself as dialogue,” Dr Muluka says.

Constitutional Lawyer Ndegwa Njiru thinks the disagreements will split the party critically to an extent that it may never get back to where it is today.

He believes there are people in the party who feel this is not their course. “They cannot see the nexus between the agitation and ODM. We have seen John Mbadi picking a different position from senior counsel James Orengo. and it is because Raila himself is giving mixed signals,” Mr Njiru says.

The lawyer says Raila needs to focus on his AU elections and leave Kenyans to agitate for their rights.

Lawyer Clifford Obiero says ODM appear divided already. He believes the disagreements did not start with the talks but started when Raila indicated his exit for AU post.

“Everyone began to promote his/her inheritance entitlement,” Mr Obiero says.

He believes the talk issue is just an exposure of the concealed division within. “We need to call the good party to order and create a proper framework of communication within the policies of the party,” lawyer Obiero says.

Some observers opine that there won’t be any change as long as Raila is still the party leader.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi sayss the people making noise for the talks or the lack thereof are not crying out to leave the party but for selfish interests. “They want to take advantage of the protests and talks for their own benefit,” Mr Bichachi says.

In a statement yesterday, party Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said the party is not in negotiations with the government. “As a party, we wish to make it unequivocally clear that we are not in negotiations with the Ruto regime for any coalition or political arrangement.

Any ODM member who makes themselves available to join the Kenya Kwanza cabinet or any other position should know that they do so without the blessing or support of the Party,” said Sifuna.

He said the party’s stand is that “the way forward is through an honest, all-inclusive national conversation.”

In the last few days, several senior party figures have taken conflicting positions over the proposed talks with President Ruto amid ongoing Gen Z anti-government protests.

Uriri MP Mark Nyamita says: “My party ODM is in deep discussions with the government and there is nothing wrong with it.”