Raila backtracks again in a series of missteps

Opposition Leader Raila Odinga addresses the media after the signing of IEBC bill that was developed from NADCO report into law by President William Ruto.  [Denish Ochieng, Standard]

Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga’s decision to push for dialogue to end the ongoing protests and disquiet against President William Ruto’s regime has thrown his political career into uncertainty.

The latest move by Raila is a script that has been replayed in his political career for several years whenever he had a problem with past regimes.

Unlike the past, goalposts have changed, and the new faces of the opposition leading protests do not pledge allegiance to him.

This is a grouping that appears unmoved by Raila’s calls for a national dialogue and is not reluctant to take him head-on.

Hours after he threw his weight behind a dialogue, the Gen Z warriors were quick to unleash their weapon of cyberbullying against the ODM leader and members of his family.

They posted his private telephone numbers online and rallied themselves to send him messages of discontent. The Gen Zs also wrote an anonymous letter to the African Union to reject his candidature for the African Union Commission chairperson post.

A section of the disgruntled Kenyans even suggested that they occupy Orange House to express their displeasure for Raila’s calls for a national dialogue.

This is a sharp contrast to Raila’s past political U-turns that saw his legion of supporters back his decision without question.

Observers believe Raila has committed political suicide and now faces the possibility of losing a loyal base of supporters that have been steadfast behind him for several years.

Communication Strategist, Barack Muluka, says Raila is making a very precarious move if it is true that he intends to get into a common government with Ruto.

“Maybe this is where he is finally going to fall flat on his belly, never to wake up again politically,” Dr Muluka says.

He opines that the things that the youth are decrying are not about who forms government with whom but about abuse of power, abuse of office and theft by senior State officers.

Muluka says the proposed talks are a diversion to derail Gen Z from their agenda.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi says the reality of Kenyan politics has changed significantly since the Gen Z protests started.

He thinks the old forts of tribe and regional kingpin-ship do not exist anymore.

“Gen Z is a classless and tribeless movement unified only by their pursuit of purpose. They have insulated themselves from the political class, and they clearly want a fresh start,” Mr Bichachi says.

Bichachi said it will be hard for any politician to expect that his base remains the same.

“This is even more true for Raila Odinga, who has already declared his departure from Kenya,” Bichachi says.

Just like the famous saying “misery loves company”, some observers believe the fear of a younger generation of Kenyans keen to transform the country’s political dynamics has hit both Ruto and Raila.

They claim the two leaders have been startled by the intensity of the push against the political class and have opted to retreat to design their survival patterns and end the nationwide disquiet.

Communication specialist and analyst, Charles Nyambuga, says it is a political miscalculation by Raila.

“The terrain has changed, and he could get a bad backlash,” Dr Nyambuga says.

Constitutional lawyer Clifford Obiero says Raila appears to be sneaking out of active politics, and Ruto is the one seducing his support to attempt to neutralise his political and administrative relevance and the Gen Z effect strongly unfolding.

Obiero thinks it is going to be of little or no impact since Gen Z and Millennials are trying to focus on issues, not individuals and entities.

“If Raila succeeds in getting an AU job for one term, he will be 81; if he strikes it twice, he will be 85; and as you can see, there is a generation thirsty for revolution geared towards the young and enthusiastic leadership,” Obiero says.

Constitutional lawyer Joshua Nyamori believes Raila is an experienced politician who never makes a move before considering its consequences.

“Just like the proverbial phoenix that rises from the ashes, Odinga thrives best when the country is in a crisis,” Nyamori says.

He thinks Raila’s die-hard supporters will have no choice but to abide by his decision, “as history has shown that his followers who chose to go against him usually fall aside to oblivion”.

In Raila’s own camp, a troop of younger MPs started clamouring for change to edge out older politicians as they sought to emerge as the new faces of the opposition.

They include Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.

The Standard has established that a section of leaders allied to the former Prime Minister are reluctant to join his bandwagon in the push for a national dialogue.

In Azimio, critics believe the Opposition has failed Kenyans in offering an alternative leadership to a grouping that has lost faith in President Ruto’s administration.

A close ally of the ODM leader told The Standard that there is a feeling of discontent from leaders who believe the nationwide protests spearheaded by the Gen Z were the right platform to push back against Kenya Kwanza.

“The Opposition has failed Kenyans. We have shown two faces. On one end we were condemning the murder and abduction of Kenyans by a rogue regime. The next minute, we are at the forefront in pushing for a dialogue,” says an ODM leader.

While most ODM MPs claim they will back Raila’s push for dialogue, others believe the pushback against Ruto and his regime is still on.

At the Coast, where Raila has maintained a firm grip for the last 17 years, analysts said the bromance between Ruto and Raila benefits the former to the political detriment of the latter. 

Maimuna Mwidau said the cooperation between Ruto and Raila indicates increasing fear in the political circles of the unity of the young.

“The political landscape has shifted. The Gen Z movement is no longer easily controlled by Raila, as it was in the past. His quick embrace of Ruto is a political miscalculation,” Ms Mwidau commented.

Former Political Affairs Advisor to Prime Minister Idris Abdirahman said that for years, he watched as Raila escaped political trials, but the current situation is different.

[Report by Harold Odhiambo, Benard Sanga and Anne Atieno]