Only a lean government can get us out of this pit

Treasury CS Njuguna Ndung'u. [File, Standard]

If you are in a pit you must either stop digging, or dig yourself in deeper? But stopping to dig is not good enough. You must get out. And to get out, you must find the most practical way. If not, you must remain there, although you stop digging.

We all know Kenya is in a deep economic pit. If you don't, then you don't live here, or belong, or both. Our pit gets just a little deeper each day. But the bigger trouble is that we fear the facts. We are content to scratch at the surface and to address the symptoms. The facts are too inconvenient to be confronted.

Yes, there is theft, deodorised as corruption. There are inept and poor fiscal policies. There is lavish living by those who should know better. But there is worse. The giant in the room is the architecture, design, size and cost of government. Rope in corruption, poor fiscal policies and lavish living, and you are getting spot on. Comparisons between past regimes with the present and the Uhuru regimes on the economy use dissimilar metrics. For instance, the cost of living under the first three presidents cannot be compared with the fourth and fifth, without first recognising the huge differences in the architecture, design, size and cost of government.

Presidents Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel Arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki did not have 47 county governments and parliaments that Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto have had to deal with. Mzee Moi and Kibaki both retired when Kenya had 158 MPs. Uhuru and Ruto have each reckoned with 349, with costs.

When the counties mount an annual jamboree called the devolution conference, they proudly brandish the slogan of "forty-eight governments" but not the costs. These are 48 very expensive governments, complete, each, with a Parliament, an Executive, and other officials all the way to the sub-location; "development funds," public service, and above all very heavy establishment costs.

In point of fact, that which we call the cost of living is synonymous with the cost of government. Look, Central Bank of Kenya official data indicates that government expenditure more than tripled after President Uhuru took over. It soared from Sh791.8 billion in 200/10 to Sh2.39 trillion in 2018/19. It was the new costly government design.

Fine, there is corruption. Factor in public debt and development expenditure. It still doesn't wash. Kenya spends about 85 per cent of public revenue on recurrent expenditure. About a third of this goes towards wages. The rest covers such needs as rents, transport, energy, water, office supplies and equipment, operations, and allied concerns that keep entities going.

Put this together with a sixty-year old public debt burden, and you begin appreciating that the government's monthly balance sheet is in an ever expanding deficit.

Out of every Sh100 the government collects, Sh85 goes towards recurrent cost, across the National Government, the Counties, Parliament, the Judiciary and the Independent Commissions and Authorities. Another Sh80, of the same Sh100 goes towards debt servicing. The government remains with negative Sh65, after providing for debt and recurrent expenditure. At the bottom of the balance sheet, the figure grows every month.

You understand why there must be more borrowing and more tax each month. The solution is to face the facts. Government is too big, too heavy, too expensive. A leaner and meaner government is a must.

A popular initiative referendum to restructure government is of the essence. A Parliament of 105 MPs is enough. Reduce counties and their assemblies to eight, and no more than 300 MCAs all together. Bring down the wage bill four times. Send everyone else to a productive economy. Recovery will begin.

-Dr Muluka is a strategic communications advisor.

www.barrackmuluka.co.ke