"Election violence will remain a major problem in Kenya unless the State and other actors tackle it. This is because it leads to deterioration in peace, cohesion and integration," warns the paper, Criminal Gangs and Elections in Kenya by investigative journalist Ken Opala.
The gangs had appeared muted during the 2022 electioneering period and the immediate aftermath owing to heightened law enforcement and change in campaign approach, as presidential candidates and their respective political formations focused on ideas rather than personalities this time round. But although the elections went off relatively smoothly, an ENACT field research had forewarned about the clear nexus between politics and crime.
The gangs have since re-emerged to counter the mass action called by Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition leader Raila Odinga to protest the high cost of living, government's unilateral reconstitution of the electoral body, and electoral malpractice in the August election, among a raft of other grievances.
President William Ruto of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance won the presidential vote by a slim one per cent against Raila. So far, three people, including a police officer, have died and property worth billions of shillings stolen or destroyed by marauding gangs since the weekly protest begun on March 21.
The ENACT Africa paper says more than 30 years after the first clashes over the reintroduction of multipartyism, little has changed despite two judicial commissions of inquiry and a parliamentary select committee that recommended ways of stopping future conflicts - and even isolated names of politicians and State officers who should be investigated and prosecuted. Rather, impunity has prevailed.
"The failure of intervention measures - including legislation and disarmament - to demobilise militias and other criminal gangs effectively has emboldened them and their financiers," says ENACT Africa.
Three times in 14 years, the State has 'outlawed' various criminal gangs - 18 in 2002, 33 in 2010 and 89 in 2016. Despite this, the numbers continue to soar.
"Anybody interested in our services will inform us five days prior, about the event, venue and the amount of manpower required,' ENACT Africa quotes 'Selector' the leader of Malindi-based Shella Warriors Gang.
'Selector's' group comprises 35 members (20 always armed with machetes and the rest with whips made from car tyres). In March 2022, a politician running for a local seat in Malindi had paid 'Selector' Sh150,000 to destroy the campaign materials and dais of a rival and to mobilise his members to ensure that a rally organised by an Opposition party did not take place.
A month later, the Shella Warriors disrupted the primaries of another party, leading to the death of a woman. "We were under instructions from the politician who financed us to ensure the nomination exercise didn't take place. Unfortunately, we found another gang and a life was lost," says 'Selector', who describes his job as strictly 'protection and destruction'.
ENACT Africa focused on the gangs that have influenced elections. The first group is made up of criminal gangs funded by, or accessible to an individual politician; the second of ethnic and political party militias. These violent groups influence electoral outcomes by disrupting campaigns and polling, assassinating opponents or election officials, and contesting results through violent post-election demonstrations
In Kenya, nine out of 10 organised criminal gangs are involved in politics - whether directly or indirectly - or are funded or founded by politicians. Ninety per cent of gang activities relate to politics. By 2018, it was estimated that there were 326 such gangs in 16 counties. In fact, ENACT Africa researchers uncovered the active operations of notorious gangs the authorities claim to have obliterated years ago, such as the Mungiki, which has rebranded to 'Confirm' (a different group from the gang with the same name in Nakuru), 'Godfather' in Nairobi and 'Wasame' in Murang'a County
A member of a criminal gang shot dead by police. [File, Standard] ENACT Africa provides reasons to explain the recent shift from pre- to post-election violence. One is that the attempt by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to prosecute a number of notable Kenyans over the 2007/8 post-election violence has deterred warlords. "Those responsible for instigating the violence prefer it to be viewed as a spontaneous response to allegedly rigged elections rather than as a premeditated, well-planned and organised attack."
The politician-gang relationship is complex. While some gangs are either allied to or founded by politicians, for example in Nairobi's Eastlands, where two members of the National Assembly have extortionist groups on standby, gangs for hire, who work for the highest bidder, are more common. Depending on the relationship with their clients or financiers and the assignment, the pay ranges from Sh150,000 to Sh500,000 a day per group, according to the gang leaders of Murder Inc, No Mercy and Portmore, based in Nairobi's Kayole Estate.
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Research by The Standard last week revealed that some members of these gangs were involved in the raid on Nortlands Farm, where a cabal of politicians - including a governor from the former Rift Valley region, a former governor and two members of the National Assembly paid the gang members Sh3,000 each to raid and loot property on this expansive farm. "We operated in two formations; one cleared the trees, subdivided the land and erected temporary structures to mark ownership of land. The other was given directive to loot," one of the gang members told The Standard last week.
The gang leader says his financiers had planned to cause a blackout in telephony communication and mobile financial transactions by sabotaging communication boosters of two of the country's mobile telephone companies, had the Opposition gone ahead with the protests on April 3. Gangs had also planned to raid another of Kenyatta's farm in Naivasha, about 75km northwest of Nairobi. Raila called off the mass action following President Ruto's call for bipartisan talks
The ENACT Africa paper details how a senior politician has assembled an extensive network of organised gangs of matatu terminals controllers who raise tens of thousands of shillings a day for his election campaigns and 'philanthropic' work in Eastlands, Nairobi. In addition to extortion, he peddles influence, accepting bribes from vehicle owners to protect them from traffic police, motor vehicle inspectors and municipal authorities.
"Among the gangs at the politician's beck and call are Godfather, Yakuza, Gaza, Portmore, Kianda, and Kayole Kona Mbaya, all based in Eastlands," it says.
The rank and file earn between Sh500 and Sh1,000 each a day depending on the sensitivity of the beat and the inherent risk. While the money flow may be constant during the election period, once the election is over, the gang members go back to the matatus. Politicians involved generally make about Sh350,000 a day from roughly 34 matatu terminals controlled by the gangs in Eastlands.
"While the individual sums might appear to be relatively modest, the accumulative amounts collected in Nairobi and other key urban areas are significant, enabling the proceeds to be used to influence Kenya's politics," says ENACT Africa
The paper warns about the conflict in Marsabit County that has dislocated about 30 per cent of the county's population. It says the involvement of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), which has makeshift camps in Sololo and Walda areas , has elevated the Marsabit conflict to a disturbing level. To counter the OLF, leaders of the rival tribe in the supremacy war have moved to arm most of their people, especially in North Horr, which is awash with guns
Leading politicians, including a senior Marsabit official and a former MP for Moyale, are accused of using the militia to smuggle small arms and light weapons from Ethiopia into Kenya to benefit their support base. Though the OLF is an Ethiopian secessionist group, the militias have Kenyan identity cards that enable them to vote in Marsabit.
According to ENACT Africa, "the winner-take-all nature of Kenyan politics, which makes the presidency and other Executive positions extremely lucrative, incentivises corruption. At the core of the system is nepotism and tribalism in the public service, shielding the presidency from political threats from any quarters. Politicians use the feelings of ethnic marginalisation and resentment in many parts of the country to rally support against the so-called 'big tribes'. This has been a magnet for marginalised communities that view the presidency as a means of enriching their group".
To deal with the problem of gangs, the paper recommends a raft of measures, among them: Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission, Directorate of Criminal Investigations, and Director of Public Prosecutions must enforce electoral laws and code of conduct; Parliament must enact election campaign financing laws; the government should dismantle organised criminal gangs and militias and prosecute their leaders and funders; and Parliament should create a special tribunal charged with prosecuting electoral violence.
At the moment, election violence is treated as a petty offence, or, at worst, robbery with violence, which leads to the conviction only of the rank and file within criminal groups. The financiers and sponsors of the violence get off scot-free because the justice system fails to make the connection between the violence and organised crime.
"Concerned authorities need to build the investigative capacity of law enforcement officers, judicial personnel and prosecutors to isolate organised crime from petty crime or violence," the policy paper recommends.