Third in command? Calculating senator's gamble could pay off

Unlike Wetang'ula, the positions of Ruto as president, Rigathi Gachagua as deputy president and Musalia as Prime Cabinet Secretary are strictly hinged on the Kenya Kwanza Alliance forming the government. Team Ruto is banking on the Supreme Court not nullifying their victory which has been challenged by Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya candidate Raila Odinga.

Asked whether it will be a risky affair to resign as a senator in order to vie for the speaker's slot, Wetang'ula who turns 66 next month expressed confidence in his move: "We have done our homework. Besides the rallying of numbers currently spearheaded by the president-elect, I also have friends and individual supporters from across the political divide, who I expect to back my bid."

Wetang'ula is only but the third politician in the recent past to have the luxury of leaving an MP position after an election for another political post. In 2007, Kenneth Marende who had just been re-elected as Emuhaya MP, on an Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket, surrendered the seat upon his election as speaker. Kericho Senator Charles Keter similarly necessitated a by-election in 2015 upon his appointment as Energy Cabinet Secretary.

The handpicking of his PA, a former teacher of Kiswahili (at Milima Secondary School) as his replacement is yet another confirmation of Wetangula's political influence in Bungoma. Wetang'ula registered a resounding victory in the elections, garnering 286,143, which accounts for over 70 per cent of the votes cast. He secured Ruto a similar percentage in Bungoma - the highest the UDA leader scored in Western region.

Strangely, the lawyer turned politician hardly campaigned in his strongholds of Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties as he was away, engrossed in campaigns on the national stage. In fact, he never bothered to print a single T-shirt, poster, cap or calendar, or put up a campaign billboard.

"I did not spend a single coin on printing or purchasing campaign material as my voters plainly assured me that my poster was in their hearts. To date, I am humbled by the great gesture of the people of Bungoma," says Wetang'ula.

A couple of days before the polls, Azimio's interim Secretary General Junet Mohamed accused the Ford Kenya boss of lobbying and influencing the awarding of the ballot printing tender to a Greek firm, Inform Lykos.

Junet called for speedy investigations by the relevant agencies on Wetang'ula's relationship with Inform Lykos.

"We know your connections and we also know that you have been holding several meetings with the chairman (of IEBC, Wafula Chebukati) in Karen on the same," claimed Junet.

"I have no interest whatsoever in any paper business least ballot papers for any elections. I don't trade in paper or printing. I am a full-time politician and lawyer sometimes straying into farming," responded Wetang'ula at the time.

Wetang'ula, who started his political career in 1992 as Nominated MP of the independence party Kanu is the most politically experienced partner in coalition deal-making within the Ruto-led outfit that includes Musalia and several other new kids on the block, such as Moses Kuria and Mwangi Kiunjuri.

Wetang'ula teamed up with Raila and former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka under the aegis of Coalition for Restoration of Democracy (CORD) in 2013 and National Super Alliance (NASA) in 2017 alongside Musalia.

In all the two poll instances, Raila and Kalonzo were left in political cold after failing to secure victory as their partner, Wetang'ula, secured an elective seat and even served as Minority Leader in the Senate.

In 2017, Musalia who came on board with the NASA outfit, which was his baby child, equally stayed in the wings as Wetang'ula comfortably landed his seat in the Senate - thanks to his Plan B ploy.

This year, Wetang'ula approached the election same-style with several cards at play whether or not the Kenya Kwanza forms the next government. Even if, for instance, the Supreme Court overturns Ruto's win, Wetang'ula can still secure what he bargained for, unless of course the boss changes the rules of the game midway.

Presently, the battle to consolidate numbers for the speaker's position is underway with Wetang'ula, a former Senate Minority Leader, carrying the Kenya Kwanza flag and Kalonzo believed to be the candidate of the Raila-led Azimio coalition.

Wetangu'la's decision to defend his Senate seat was misconstrued that his coalition had sensed defeat, but he now seemingly has the last laugh.

Apart from the speaker's slot, the deal with Ruto's UDA has greatly benefited Wetang'ula. The Ford-Kenya party boss has subsequently inherited the neighbouring political constituencies of Mt Elgon sub-county in Bungoma County and Trans Nzoia County, which have traditionally been Ruto-leaning.

When he famously stated in Parliament that his political divorce with his then NASA coalition leader, Raila - "will be noisy, messy and with casualties" - Wetang'ula was possibly referring to events that are currently unfolding.

"I never meant that political noise would be an immediate occurrence. Mine was a futuristic prediction and you can now see it all, especially with regard to the casualties. Let us downplay this factor because this is a time for national healing," implores Wetang'ula.