It's me again, Jah: Raila goes to court- again

Azimio One Kenya Coalition presidential candidate petition documents at the Supreme Court on Monday August 22, 2022. [Samson Wire, standard]

Raila's hero status and cult following is not in question. Although there exist muted doubts even amongst his most loyal of followers on whether destiny will always conspire to steer him away from the presidency, a similar set of supporters with unwavering belief on the possibilities of a Raila presidency hold brand Raila firm.

"It is Baba's (Raila) destined time and the stars have aligned perfectly. The obstacles hitherto placed on his path are falling away and it's incredible to watch this happen," Edwin Sifuna, the Secretary General of the former Prime Minister's party, Orange Democratic Moment (ODM), and now Nairobi Senator told a Standard writer in the run-up to the just concluded and now contested presidential Elections.

For Raila, the 2022 presidential elections represented much more than just another attempt at the presidency.

"This was probably the closest Raila has come to the presidency...and this made this election one with the highest stakes for him because there is a feeling that this could be his last stab at the presidency," political analyst javas Bigambo said. "The next election might be too far off for him. His grip on power is understandable fading and the electorate too is changing and moving on to other politicians."

Unlike previous attempts, there was a certain air of agency around this year's campaigns. Although previous attempts have been billed as a final assault to the helm, there was an air of finality hanging over this campaign period and some pundits say that to get his presidency across the lines, he has been forced to make concessions down the road.

"One of the biggest compromises he made was trying to push the unpopular Building Bridges Initiative," political pundit Professor Herman Manyora says. "Of course, this is a compromise that did not pay off."

Prof Manyora says that had BBI gone through, then Raila election bid would have sailed through.

"This would have fundamentally altered the politics of the country," he says.

The second compromise, Prof. Manyora says, was Raila working with President Uhuru Kenyatta.

"Raila has always felt slighted by the system. There is a felling within his ranks that at least two election outcomes have been influenced against him by the state. By working with President Uhuru, he believed that the system this time could not go against one its own," Prof. Manyora says. "So far, it still looks like the system did not push him across the line."

These compromises too have included shedding some of the weight from the past and choosing to walk down unfamiliar paths hoping that these new paths would lead to victory.

For the first time in decades, Raila went into the election without the solid backing on what was initially termed as a stronghold- the Western Kenya voting block- after falling out with lieutenants that had backed him in previous elections such as Moses Wetangula of Ford Kenyan, Musalia Mudavadi of the Amani National Congress and Amason Kingi of PAA.

In the grand scheme of things, his parting of ways with the three may seem insignificant, but they had an impact on the Raila of previous elections. His following had been dented somewhat. His lieutenants however, remain assured that their man got the numbers that matter the most in this election.

"Ours is victory deferred but it's coming home and that's the message to everyone as we explore legal and constitutional avenues," Raila's running mate Martha Karua said in an address on August 17th. "Let everybody know that victory is coming home."

For every man he loses, Raila has had the uncanny ability over time to gain another. In losing Mudavadi and Wetangula over the years, Raila elevated the statures of Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya and his running mate Martha Karua.

But his key core of loyalists, including Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka remained intact, ready to once again hinge the entirety of their political careers on the successes of a Raila presidency.

"We have sung that nchi hii bado ni mapambano hadi haki ipatikane," Kalonzo said at the same press conference with Martha Karua at Kenyatta International Convention Center.

Yet almost to a man, his followers are matched with those who cannot imagine a Ruto loss.

In a country with deep rooted political passions with hardly any middle ground, Raila has for the most of his career been undisputedly the most disruptive character to the country's political status quo. He has also been one of the most divisive characters on the stage of Kenyan politics, his performances at the end of every election receiving both barbs and bouquets.

Historically, he has had the strength to side-step the barbs yet maintain some level of grace to take time to smell the bouquets thrown his way. His political journey now has a familiarity to it.

Whatever outcome from the legal process that he triggered yesterday, there will be little surprises. A dismissal of the petition will send his team and his supporters down a familiar route of resignation and fatality with hopes hinged, again, in a future outcome of the election.

A win at the supreme court will open yet another familiar window at an elusive presidency that seems like the final destination for Raila raising hope for the millions who have put this generational politician on a pedestal.

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