Is Uhuru Kenyatta a lame duck leader or grandmaster of Kenyan politics?

Uhuru Kenyatta presenting his nomination papers, November 2002. [File, Standard]

In our short history of multi-party politics, the use of the term lame duck, in reference to an outgoing president, is yet to crystalize. However, established democracies like the US have normalised and operationalised the use of the term lame duck whilst referring to an outgoing president.

This becomes conspicuous immediately after a presidential election has been held and somebody else has been elected president. In such instances, the outgoing president, while awaiting to vacate office, has inconsequential authority but enormous powers.

In Kenya, heretofore, the lame duck period can only be said of former President Mwai Kibaki, especially in his second term. The same cannot be said of Mzee Jomo Kenyatta considering he died while in office and neither can it be said of President Daniel Moi who had mastered the Machiavellian tricks of exercising power.

Now, even though we are yet to have our presidential election, President Uhuru Kenyatta finds himself in a lame duck period. Many reasons can be attributed to this development but what tops the list is that the succession ball is out of his court. We say so considering the presidential character of President Uhuru. A basic examination of his personal character, background and his performance, especially during the second term, reveals that he’s not a child of fate. He’s a man who is always in the know and in control.  At least he controls anything that is within his control.

Be in control

For many, it has taken Uhuru rather too long to be a ‘lame duck’ if a comparison has to be made between him and former President Kibaki. It, therefore, only means that in Uhuru’s grand strategy it was not part of his game to be a lame duck. He wanted to be in control. Total control. But assuming Uhuru is in his lame duck period, he continues to manifest a lot of power and influence. A clear understanding of the concepts of power, influence and authority is consequential in the understanding of whether Uhuru is, indeed and in fact, a lame duck or a grandmaster of Kenyan politics.

To many political scientists, Robert Dahl gives the most workable definition of Power when he defines it as the ability of A to make B do what B would otherwise not have done while Max Weber, in differentiating the definitions of power and authority, defines authority as the legitimate use of power. Finally, a dictionary definition of influence is mean the power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or intangible ways. Consider the following example.

Under the 2010 Constitution, the office of the Deputy President, which has and will continue to cause a lot of political instability, is one with a lot of power but little authority. By the very fact that one is an occupant of the office of DP then the trappings of power that come with that office make them powerful and in a way influential. An occupant of the office of DP can make you do what you would have otherwise not have done. 

Former President Daniel Moi (right) with KANU presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta, 2002. [File, Standard]

Instructively, a very casual understanding of the concept of power and authority coupled with, ‘a fundamental national refusal to accept that the president is an absolute monarch in republican clothes’, as observed by Onyango-Obbo, will forever be detrimental to our political stability. The former is the reason why institutions like the ODPP and DCI have found it hard to work together. We digress.

In his assumed lame duck period, Uhuru finds himself as a man with enormous powers, authority and influence. As such, he has used his power to control his succession. However, since his grand strategy, of managing his succession, was, by and large, hurting the campaigns of his preferred successor, Raila, he has since shifted to using his influence. Suffice it to say, the visible hand of Uhuru in Raila’s presidential campaigns sanctioned the rebranding of Raila as a “project” of the status quo, notwithstanding the fact that Raila has spent all his years fighting against the status quo. 

Accordingly, to erase the damage that had been made by his clear use of power, it was only right for Uhuru to compromise in the choice of Raila’s running mate. This explains why he influenced Raila to throw a dead cat on the table by choosing Martha Karua as Raila’s running mate. Lo and behold! Everybody, until now, has been distracted and talking about what is on the table. And because choices have consequences, the choice of Karua has since made Uhuru a lame duck. Simply put, Uhuru and Karua are like the proverbial two lions that can’t rule the same valley.

That said, Uhuru has equally proved to all and sundry that he is the grandmaster of Kenyan politics. And because politics and war are greatly related to the extent that Carl von Clausewitz observed that war is politics by other means, Uhuru has employed war tactics and strategies in managing his politics.

Borrowing from the advice of Sun Tzu on the art of war, Uhuru has, with low aggression, broken his enemies without fighting. He has learnt to appear weak even with his strength. Having learnt his enemies with a tooth comb, he has sought to irritate them so that they can be temperamental while ensnaring them with honey traps.   

Like any leader, Uhuru has scored and failed in different areas. However, a keener look at what a majority of Kenyans consider failure during Uhuru’s presidency, manifests a clear lack of understanding of Uhuru the man and especially his style of doing things.

At a personal and national level, the handshake stands out as his major achievement yet. Here’s why.

Immediately after Uhuru won his second term, there was talk of making the Ruto, a Dick Cheney whilst rendering Uhuru a lame duck president. Like Cheney, Ruto was harbouring ambitions of being a very powerful and authoritative DP. Like Cheney, Ruto wanted to oversee the day to day activities of the State House over and above guiding the government’s agenda. But Uhuru struck like thunder. Within no time, Ruto was locked out of key ministerial positions, and to make it worse, his greatest foe was invited into government. To this extent, it is Ruto who became a lame duck DP.

DP William Ruto. [File, Standard]

Handshake with Raila

At the national level, by having the handshake with Raila, Uhuru precipitated negative peace in the country by calming the opposition. Even though a Raila presidency was almost certain with or without the support of Uhuru, the handshake in a great way diced Raila’s chances and consequently made Raila beholden to Uhuru.

Another major achievement by Uhuru has to do with his big push investments. His development projects are a pointer to Uhuru’s long-termism. These projects, if anything, indicate that Uhuru is a man who values not little victories. If further explains, maybe, why the Jubilee party might not have had a keen interest in the by-elections that occurred after the handshake.

But, even more intriguing, is the question of why Uhuru is not so keen on trying to get capital out of his development projects in Mt Kenya region. In looking at his character, one can conclude that if the strategy was to empower Mt Kenya region with massive infrastructure, then it is only prudent if the other regions don’t know about it. So what appears to be a failure on his part to communicate about his successes in Mt Kenya, might actually be a strategy to keep in the dark other regions of the country about what is happening in Mt Kenya.

Be that as it may, Uhuru’s laid back administration and numerous mega corruption scandals will remain the biggest tragedy of his presidency. In his mode of management, and considering Uhuru is a Mr Nice Guy, he entertained colourless and non-performing Cabinet Secretaries and government officers. But even when he was forced to dismiss some of his CSs, he still went further to give them a soft landing in a show of his empathetic personality.

And now as he prepares his exit, Uhuru sleeps like a baby knowing that his grand strategy worked. First, he did not become a lame duck until when it was inevitable. Second, he was able to capture Raila and make him his ‘brother’. And, finally, he was able to actualize his big push investments at a time when the world economy was taking a beating from Covid-19.