The Kalonzo factor: Why it will build or break the Azimio dream

 

On Thursday Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga, with his legal advisor Paul Mwangi in tow, rushed to a crisis meeting with disgruntled party leaders who are supporting his presidential bid.

The hitch at hand partly revolved around Raila’s Wiper Party counterpart, Kalonzo Musyoka, and from the look of things, the problem is far from settled.   

According to pundits, this is neither the first nor last setback involving Kalonzo within the Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya outfit that presidential nominee, Raila, and the leadership of the newly formed coalition will be called upon to address.   

In fact, when reached for comment on Saturday, Machakos Governor Dr Alfred Mutua confided to this writer that he was entering into a meeting with Deputy President William Ruto.

“I have come to listen to what he has to say before weighing our options as Maendeleo Chap Chap party on our political destiny. On the other side, Kalonzo is busy chasing us away and has even declared that he does not want to share a podium with me and my colleagues Governors Charity Ngilu (Kitui) and Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni).”  

The Machakos governor, alongside counterparts from the Ukambani region as well as Narc-Kenya party leader, Martha Karua, are among political leaders allied to Azimio la Umoja –  One Kenya, who held a consultative meeting with Raila on Thursday.

Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga during the Azimio Coalition Rally held at Jacaranda Grounds in Embakasi, Nairobi on March 12, 2022. [Stafford Ondego, Standard]

 

Among their grievances is political zoning of regions and being sidelined from the coalition’s decision-making organs.  

And although Raila addressed some of their concerns as confirmed by a press statement released by the spokesperson of his campaign, Prof Makau Mutua, on Friday, Makueni MP Dan Maanzo trashed the truce efforts by insisting on the zoning rule.

Maanzo further vowed to push out the Kivutha, Ngilu and Mutua parties from independently fielding candidates in the region under the Azimio umbrella.  

Admittedly, unlike most political players now in Raila’s corner, Kalonzo is a prized political star who shares a long history with the former Prime Minister, having served as his running mate two consecutive times.

Flexing political muscle

And this precisely explains the former Vice President’s high expectations and why he is flexing political muscle.     

Only on Wednesday – at a meeting in Nairobi with aspirants from his Wiper Party – members demanded that Kalonzo be declared Raila’s running mate in the August 9 polls.

In response, Kalonzo pointed out rather confidently that it was needless to talk about “the obvious”.

But as Makueni Senator, Mutula Kilonzo Jr aptly observes, there is a deafening silence on this matter.

And this is partly because there are other factors at play in determining a running mate, not to mention the fact that the former VP is a late entrant in Team Azimio which might have exhausted this issue already.  

“While it may appear obvious on the surface, we are aware of serious lobbying to deny him (Kalonzo) the slot. How they intend to navigate this landmine is in my view, the last ace in the pack,” Mutula told The Sunday Standard.  

So ideally from Mutula and Kalonzo’s perspective, the understanding of their presence in the Azimio outfit is to complement Raila’s presidential bid in the capacity of the second most crucial position.

 

And therein, opines political analyst Dr Henry Wabwire, lies the biggest conflict and disconnect in the Azimio presidential campaigns.   

“Kalonzo is your typical talented soccer star, who unfortunately is not a utility player. He has come to Azimio to play in a specific position and no attempts by the coach, captain or teammates will convince him into switching positions. This can indeed be very frustrating to teammates and fans,” observes Dr Wabwire.     

Ukambani rivalry

Claiming that the Wiper Party leader has joined the Azimio train “with a sense of entitlement”, Mutua alleges that Kalonzo has come to deliberately ruin it for Raila.

“Before getting on board, there was harmony and synchrony in our campaigns and operations. Suddenly, there are demands and impediments at every stage of the electioneering process, including conditions on who should or should not share a podium with him.”  

However, Mutula argues that it is the three Ukambani governors who have been rattled by the entry of Kalonzo.

According to the Senate Minority Whip, the former VP has taken over the space which they have been occupying as political intermediaries between Raila and the residents of Ukambani.

The lawyer alleges the three governors want to fight for Raila in Ukambani but fight against the Wiper party tooth and nail in a “cut your nose to spite your face sort of operation”.  

“Hii kelele yote (all the noise), caucus meetings and joint protests without Kalonzo will not help Azimio politically or the vote-hunt for Raila in Ukambani,” states Mutula.  

Amid the Ukambani political ping-pong, ODM’s Secretary General Edwin Sifuna however remains optimistic.

When Kalonzo teamed up with his party boss, observes the lawyer, the differences with Ngilu, Kivutha and Mutua – who were already on board – were expected to play out.

“This is because they have long been entangled in rivalry back home. However, the overriding principle is that we are in one large happy family with the aim of delivering political victory to the (former) Prime Minister,” says Sifuna.  

Blackmail, suspicions and mistrust claims

But an MP from the Nyanza region, who spoke on conditions of anonymity for fear of being reprimanded for inflaming the Kalonzo issue, is not as optimistic.

The second-term MP accuses the former VP of slowing down campaign momentum and allegedly blackmailing Raila with unilateral demands.  

“Clearly, he (Kalonzo) is yet to prove himself as a team player that we have all along known him to be. While Jakom (Raila) is working hard to bring everyone together, he is doing the exact opposite by scattering others. And even as he pushes for the running mate slot, Kalonzo must make up his mind on whether he wants to graduate to a Deputy President or remain a running mate with the rider of former,” protests the politician.  

 

Weighing in on the subject, Dr Wabwire warns the Azimio brigade on the folly of engaging in post-poll power-sharing negotiations. Negotiating before poll victory, he observes, is imprudent and takes away the campaign vigour and focus on victory.  

The Raila-Kalonzo situation is further complicated by suspicions and mistrust – thanks to previous Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), which according to Kalonzo, his “elder brother” has repeatedly trashed.  

“Jumping into another political marriage without ironing out fully previous hiccups was unwise. We are now in a situation where one partner is overcautious and not firmly in the union, which is a major source of insecurity and infidelity,” observes the political sociology expert.  

And the situation has not been made any better following Kalonzo’s recent plea to voters in his backyard to give him enough parliamentary seats to enable him to impeach Raila “in the event he negates on our agreements”.  

While Kalonzo may have made the remarks with a light touch aimed at boosting voter turnout, the remarks reflect on his delicate relations with Raila.  

Mutula attributes this situation to a trust deficit, which he stresses is historical and real.

“(President) Uhuru, Raila and Kalonzo should allay all the doubts in the rank and file and supporters . Very little is being done to promote a semblance of camaraderie”. 

Because Kalonzo and Raila have only – and hurriedly – glossed over their past differences, Dr Wabwire opines that the two are engrossed more in safeguarding their interests from one another at the expense of realistic political strategy.

Kalonzo, for instance, reads political mischief in Raila’s insistence on keeping the company of Ngilu, Mutua and Kivutha, who are his political rivals.

On the flipside, Raila cannot let go of them owing to Kalonzo’s apparent unpredictability, which may leave him exposed if the former VP were to unexpectedly bolt out or make fresh demands. 

And as the clock ticks away, the cracks of mistrust seem to be widening. Kalonzo is accordingly building his team, including getting on board the immediate former Nairobi Governor, Mike Mbuvi Sonko, in a move aimed at strengthening his bargain within the larger Azimio outfit.

In apparent retaliation, Raila is getting firmer and tougher in his fight back. On Thursday, for instance, he smoothly brushed aside Kalonzo's team’s demand for the running mate slot stating that leaders of the coalition member parties will have a say on that decision “at the appropriate time”.

No doubt, the unfolding events are a threat to the Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya party campaigns much as Sifuna maintains that the “hiccups are expected because we are a large family”.  

According to the ODM SG, Raila’s presidential bid remains a uniting factor, even as the issue of teamwork is addressed.

“Part of the problem is that colleagues are consuming a lot of rumours circulating around us, not to mention the ever-present factor of sibling rivalry.”  

Concludes Mutula: “We must make Azimio a coalition of the willing. So far little is being done or said to bring all teams to a consensus ad idem.”