Kalonzo shelves ambition and declares 'Raila tosha' yet again

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga show solidarity after Raila was unveiled as the Azimio la Umoja flag bearer at Jacaranda Grounds in Embakasi, Nairobi on March 12, 2022. [Stafford Ondego, Standard]

Contrary to his earlier vow, Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka eventually came through, yet again, for his “brother” Raila Amolo Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement at a colourful ceremony in Nairobi, witnessed by President Uhuru Kenyatta, among other guests.

By putting ink to paper yesterday, at a brief ceremony held at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC), the former Vice President ultimately endorsed the candidature of Raila for the presidency in the August poll, for a record third time.

In a widely circulated vow mid last year, Kalonzo categorically stated he would not support Raila’s bid for a third time, “without any measure of reciprocity”. And in there lies the possible reason why the negotiations between the two leaders was a dicey, long and painful affair, causing a six-hour delay in yesterday’s programme.

And akin to the Swahili adage, “subira huvuta heri (patience pays)”, there was the excitement after the long wait when the Wiper party leader finally showed up at KICC to support Raila’s presidential bid. Indeed, it is a gesture that humbled Raila, with Uhuru asking the delegates present to stand up in honour of Kalonzo.

“To say that I did not expect this (reunion) would be a lie, yet still to say that I was confident Kalonzo was going to team up with Jakom (Raila) is a half-truth. These two leaders are known to one another and have worked together, and so anything was going to happen,” says an elated National Assembly’s Minority Leader, John Mbadi.         

This latest development mirrors what Raila has often captured with the analogy of a gazelle. He and Kalonzo, he says, have been on a hunting mission since 2013. And during that period they have managed to spear the gazelle twice but in all instances, the animal was snatched away from them. In egging on his partner, the Orange party leader has claimed the prey has finally been cornered – tired and breathless.

Yesterday Kalonzo heeded the plea and is now back on the hunting mission. It was not easy, though, to persuade the 68-year-old politician to get his hunting gear on. Placing several conditions for teaming up with Raila, Kalonzo at some point – on March 1st – made public a secret pact he signed with Raila, in which the latter reportedly committed to supporting the Wiper party leader’s presidential bid this year.

With the apparent help of President Uhuru, whom Kalonzo publicly asked to help in negotiations uniting him and Raila, the 2007 presidential contestant finally came around. But like siblings, Raila and Kalonzo have had a love-hate affair over the last two decades, punctuated by suspicion and mistrust. Sometimes, differences in their on-and-off relations are triggered by seemingly minute issues and happenings.   

The initial Raila-Kalonzo breakup, for instance, started on a much lighter and inconsequential note, but it quickly developed to a rift beyond repair. This was in 2005 when both leaders were members of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – comprising mainly of MPs who had broken away from Kanu.      

Former LDP-allied MP for Bahari, Joe Khamisi, recalls that a vicious physical fight between MPs Ayiecho Olweny and Moffat Maitha in May, over-allocation of a hotel room during a retreat, poisoned the alliance between Raila and Kalonzo. The brawl between the two allies of Raila and Kalonzo, according to Khamisi, was asymptomatic of a Raila-a strained Raila-Kalonzo relationship.

In The Politics Of Betrayal: Diary of a Kenyan Legislator, Khamisi chronicles dramatic episodes and detailed maneuvers that led to Kalonzo’s exit and the role he played in sealing a deal with Mwai Kibaki that helped Kalonzo to capture the vice presidency. Indeed, the two leaders come a long way, having teamed up first – but briefly – in the then Kanu ruling party in 2001, when Raila served as party secretary-general and Kalonzo as one of the party vice-chairmen. This was after Raila folded his National Development Party (NDP) to join Kanu.

But Raila’s political marriage with the late President Daniel arap Moi did not last. And as the late Mark Too, Nominated MP, hilariously remarked, “Kanu swallowed Tinga (Raila’s nickname) but forgot to switch off the tractor’s engine, leading Kanu to choke to death”.

The duo would later serve in the Kibaki Cabinet, only to be shown the door after campaigning against the 2005 Constitutional referendum. They quickly transformed the “Orange” symbol of the “No” campaign, which they had spearheaded in a party – Orange Democratic Movement. But they fell out following disagreement over the flag bearer.

“We are children of the same father – Orange – and although we have since changed the name to Wiper, we remain members of one family,” says Makueni MP, Dan Maanzo.

The Raila-Kalonzo relationship has however been plagued by bitter disputes over failure by Raila to honour signed pacts with the former PM. In the run up to the 2017 poll, for instance, Minority Leader in the National Assembly, the late Francis Nyenze, lit the fire under Raila’s chair for trashing a Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2013 to the effect of supporting Kalonzo’s bid in that year.

Although Raila maneuvered his way around it describing the demand as impractical, “because we were not recognised to have won and so there is nothing to hand over to my brother”, the 2013 ghosts caught up with Raila early this month when Kalonzo fished out yet another unfulfilled deal.   

Soon, after the dust of yesterday’s celebrations settles down, the two “brothers” will have to sit and firm up a deal over Kalonzo’s “cut”, should the Azimio Movement win the August poll. With insiders insisting that the slot of Deputy President be reserved for a politician from the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, there are suggestions that the former VP will settle for the new post of Chief Minister or quasi Premier.

However according to Maanzo, this will be a hard sale for Kalonzo, “considering the fact that the position does not exist under the current constitutional structure of the Executive”. There are other available slots, nonetheless, including Speaker in either of the two houses of Parliament.

Reflecting on the Raila-Kalonzo reunion, Dr Henry Wabwire believes the combination of two politicians in the upcoming polls will greatly help Raila to regain lost political ground – especially in Ukambani.

“Until yesterday, Kalonzo was the most sought after political bride on the scene, with an estimated 1.7 million vote-basket in Ukambani region and countrywide. Even if part of this vote was already leaning towards the three governors (Prof Kivutha Kibwana, Dr Alfred Mutua and Charity Ngilu of Makueni, Machakos and Kitui counties), the entry of Kalonzo solidifies the said vote and offers the perception that Ukambani region is sealed for Azimio,” says Dr Wabwire, a political affairs analyst.