Why history of the Cuban Crisis could be repeating itself in Ukraine

President John F Kennedy ordered a blockade of Cuba and demanded an immediate withdrawal of the missiles. [File, Standard]

Mr Winston Churchill, former British Prime Minister and a prolific writer, said “the further back we can look, the further into the future we can see.”

This is the most  compelling reason why we should study history because we can see parallels from the past and precedents for the future on how best we can deal with current issues. The war in Ukraine is a classic example. I see a repeat of the Cuban Crisis of 1962 and the tragedy of the politics of appeasement in Munich in 1938.

In 1962 Mr Nikita Khrushchev, the Russian premier, ordered Russian missiles to be placed in Cuba. Cuba is about 90 miles from Florida, United States. As soon as the Americans found out about this, President John F Kennedy ordered a blockade of Cuba and demanded an immediate withdrawal of the missiles. This became known as the Cuban Crisis.

President Kennedy made it very clear that he would not tolerate Russian missiles a few hours away from the American homeland. The world watched in bated breath; this crisis could easily escalate into a nuclear war. International tensions were already high due to the Cold War. Within a few days the Russians backed down and withdrew their missiles. Kennedy’s resolute demands made him a hero and he was seen as the winner in the Cuban Crisis.

The Ukraine war is a repeat of the Cuban Crisis in reverse. Russia cannot tolerate Ukraine entering NATO as this would mean that NATO troops and missiles would be placed in Ukraine, which is right on the borders of Russia. Just like Kennedy would not tolerate missiles a short distance from American homeland, neither would Mr Putin tolerate American missiles so close to his homeland. The difference is that this time Ukraine refused to back down and Russia invaded.

Meanwhile, the style with which the West has dealt with Mr Putin tragically repeats what happened in Munich back in 1938. Mr Putin is a repeat of Adolf Hitler all over again.

Mr Hitler came to power following the humiliation of defeat in the First World War. Germany was reeling under painful repatriations, massive unemployment and a collapsed currency that wiped out people’s savings. Mr Hitler was a ruthless dictator who killed or jailed all opposition; Mr Putin does the same.

Mr Hitler came with an aggressive nationalist call for patriotism. To regain pride and show power, Mr Hitler annexed Austria and all nearby territories with large German populations. The West failed to take any action. The final capitulation was in Munich where British Prime Minister signed a non-aggression treaty with Germany and allowed Hitler to invade Czechoslovakia. The failure to stop Hitler led to the Second World War.

Mr Putin has aroused an aggressive nationalist pride after the humiliation of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The once-mighty Soviet Union had been reduced to a third world status, with its economic and financial institutions stolen by billionaire oligarchs. Then he invaded Crimea, which has a large Russian population just like Hitler did with Austria. Now it is stopping NATO in Ukraine just like President Kennedy stopped the Russians in Cuba. Déjà vu.

Can we learn from these two examples? History repeats itself. James Baldwin had this to say: History is not the past. It is the present. We carry our history with us. We are our history. If we pretend otherwise, we are literally criminals. Reflect on this.