Kalonzo or Mudavadi? Can the real kingmaker stand up before August?

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Amani National Congress head Musalia Mudavadi [Courtesy]

Kalonzo Musyoka’s record has positioned him as a serious kingmaker having consistently ring-fenced the votes in the lower eastern region, which comprises Kitui, Makueni and Machakos counties.

As such, an alliance with Kalonzo offers one of the surest chances for a presidential candidate to secure the lion’s share of the 1.7 million votes in that bloc. The region registered 178,927 new votes in the enhanced voter registration drive concluded on Sunday.

Provisional voter registration figures from December 2020 had placed the region’s vote at 1.5 million.

When he sought the presidency in 2007, Kalonzo secured over 800,000 votes countrywide. His votes in Ukambani accounted for 80 per cent of his total tally, trouncing his competitors, ODM leader Raila Odinga and the then president, Mwai Kibaki.

In the midst of the disputed elections, Kalonzo switched allegiances to support Kibaki, a move that earned the President some legitimacy and landed Kalonzo the vice president’s seat.

Fast forward to 2012. An alliance between Uhuru Kenyatta’s TNA and William Ruto’s URP forced Kalonzo into a pact with Raila, in which the Wiper Party leader was made running mate.

Kalonzo’s influence paid off in the March 2013 election, when Raila edged out Uhuru in lower eastern after garnering 85 per cent of the region’s votes. Although Uhuru won the presidency, his performance in lower eastern did not differ much from Kibaki’s in 2007.

Not much would change in 2017 when Raila garnered, for the second time, 80 per cent of lower eastern vote despite Uhuru improving his performance from 2013 to secure a re-election.

Another critical statistic is the voter turnout that the Wiper Party has consistently pulled in the three elections. That is perhaps the clearest indication of Kalonzo’s influence in Ukambani. In three electoral cycles, he has consistently delivered the bulk of the region’s vote – once as a presidential candidate and twice as running mate.

When choosing running mates, a major consideration has always been their contribution to a presidential candidate’s vote basket. At the front of the queue of possible contenders are politicians who command their respective ethnic blocs and secure it, almost exclusively, to whoever they support.

Kalonzo has been the dominant figure in lower eastern. Testament to this is the influence of his Wiper Party, which boasts the lion’s share of elective seats in Ukambani.

This year, a resistance from the three lower eastern governors – Charity Ngilu (Kitui), Alfred Mutua (Machakos) and Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni) – and forays by Ruto and Raila may threaten Kalonzo’s stranglehold of the region. But that is yet to be tested.

Also untested is whether he can deliver the votes when he is not on a joint presidential ticket. The dynamics of this year’s election offer slim prospects of Ruto or Raila picking a running mate from outside the Mt Kenya region.

“It does not matter if Kalonzo will be the running mate. He will win anyone he supports the Ukambani votes,” says political analyst Gitile Naituli.

Political commentator Herman Manyora concurs.

“But he must be strategic about an alliance with Raila. If the Building Bridges Initiative rides through, he might have an opening as it creates the position of prime minister,” argues Manyora.

Kalonzo is inclined to a coalition with Azimio la Umoja movement, although an offer to be the deputy president may be off the table and he has asked that the movement be registered first before they can start serious talks.

As far as kings and king makers go, ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi is a stark contrast to Kalonzo. The last time Mudavadi had a stab at the presidency in 2013, he garnered 483,981 votes, finishing third after Uhuru and Raila.

Mudavadi might not be going for the top seat in the August 9 elections (though he insists he will be on the ballot). Chances are that he will throw his support behind Ruto’s candidature under the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, which also has Ford-Kenya as a partner.

A big chunk of the votes that Mudavadi secured in 2013 came from five counties of Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga, Busia and Tans Nzoia. Outside this zone, Mudavadi got only 83,294 votes. Although Trans Nzoia is in the former Rift Valley Province, its voting pattern has always followed that of the four counties in Western Province.

Mudavadi got just over a fifth of the total votes cast in the region, with Raila bagging the lion’s share.

Six in 10 voters in that region cast their votes for Raila, an indicator that that former Prime Minister enjoyed the most support in the region.

Five years later, Mudavadi joined forces with Raila under the National Super Alliance banner although he was not on the ticket.

However, political dynamics had shifted. President Uhuru and his deputy, Ruto, had been in power for five years, a period in which they had made crucial inroads into the region. So much that after the general elections, Jubilee Party for the first time since 2007 had more Members of Parliament than ODM, whose leader is Raila.

Interestingly, both Uhuru and Raila gained more votes in Western during the 2017 elections, although Mudavadi had hitched his wagon on the former Primer Minister’s horse. Were the additional votes that Raila got a result of joining forces with Mudavadi?

This year, Ruto will be hoping that Mudavadi, who has cast his lots with him, can add to the momentum that the DP had started building in the region.

“Ruto has his own votes in Western and I doubt Mudavadi will add much into his basket,” Manyora said, arguing that Mudavadi holds no significant clout in Western Kenya. “The feeling in western is that he betrayed those who wanted him to go all the way”. 

If past patterns are anything to go by, there are counties where the Ruto team will struggle against Azimio.

In 2013, it is only in his home county, Vihiga, that Mudavadi beat Raila, and only by a marginal 4,601 votes.

For a while Raila has had a tight grip on Busia. In 2013, his votes there stood at 189,161, ten times more than Mudavadi’s 18,608. Raila’s votes in TansNzoia were almost four times those of Mudavadi. And in Kakamega, Raila also got twice as many votes. In Bungoma, Raila beat Mudavadi by 77,537 votes.

What will change this time round?

Ruto will be hoping that things will be different, having teamed up with Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula, the Senator for Bungoma and leader of Ford-Kenya, a popular party in parts of Western.

However, ANC has been losing its support base to a new entrant, DAP Kenya. DAP Kenya’s leader is Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, who has thrown his weight behind Azimio, further complicating the region’s political equation and diminishing Mudavadi’s influence there.