Why Mudavadi, Western should work with Raila one more time

ODM party leader Raila Odinga and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and other leaders at Bikhungu stadium during Azimio la Umoja meeting on December 31, 2021. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard]

Western Kenya and the Luhya Nation to be specific is clearly the most interesting voting block in the history of our multi-party politics.

Two prominent names from the region were at the centre of the fight for multi-partyism. These are Masinde Muliro and Martin Shikuku. The former was a ruthless negotiator and a proponent of peaceful but focused politics while Shikuku is still celebrated as the youngest member of the Kenyan delegation to Lancaster House Conferences (England), as the youth representative for Kadu, a political party which together with Kanu went for the talks at Lancaster House which paved way to the Independence of Kenya.

One would ask why exactly since the multiparty days, that the Mulembe has occasionally made political miscalculations that have left their leaders stagnant. Where there is no miscalculation, fate has always conspired against the Mulembe nation.

The first miscalculation came in 1991 after Masinde Muliro and Martin Shikuku had successfully teamed up with Charles Rubia, Kenneth Matiba, Philip Gachoka and Oginga Odinga to form FORD (Forum for restoration of democracy), a powerful lobby group that forced the Kanu government to accept multi-partyism in 1991.

FORD would then become a party with Muliro occupying the vice chairman position that put him in a strategic position to shoot to the top. With superiority contests between Matiba and Oginga beginning to wreck FORD from within, one would have expected Shikuku and Muliro not to play part in any fallout that was going to benefit Kanu.

Unfortunately for Muliro, when the rivalry between Oginga and Matiba had reached a point of no return, he found himself on an ill-fated trip. On his return from a fundraising mission for the new Ford party, he collapsed and died at the Nairobi airport on August 14, 1992.

Muliro’s death was an untimely conspiracy of fate and it left a huge leadership gap in Western Kenya that Shikuku alone was never going to fill.

It is believed that President Moi and Kanu were behind the split in FORD and unfortunately, Shikuku and Matiba played along the Nyayo game plan that saw Ford splitting to Ford Asili, which was led by Matiba and Shikuku, while Odinga and others formed Ford Kenya.

Having lost the opportunity to galvanise the Western Kenya, Nyanza and central Kenya vote under Oginga in 1992, the 1997 elections saw another strong Luhya leader emerge on the ballot and this was none other than Kijana Wamalwa who was the Ford Kenya candidate. Shikuku was also on the ballot as the Ford Asili candidate but the party had lost steam and this saw him perform terribly.

The 1997 elections saw a good section of the region rally behind Kijana Wamwalwa while Kanu got considerable numbers as well. However, it was clear that Kijana Wamalwa was fast emerging as the Luhya kingpin. Wamalwa would then become the Vice President to President Kibaki in 2022 after the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) successfully kicked Moi’s Kanu out of power.

The Luhya Nation was reverberating and rising to the top and there was a feeling that Wamalwa was better placed to take over after Kibaki’s tenure. Unfortunately, again, Wamalwa died on August 23, 2003. This left the region empty and with no direction despite the appointment of Funyula MP Moody Awori as the Vice President.

Fast-forward to next year’s general election, the region is staring at possible confusion on which way to go despite having leaders who should be discerning to read the 2022 political script.

The Amani National Congress (ANC) Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford Kenya friend Moses Wetangula should find a way of working with Raila Odinga one more time. They should not make the mistakes made by the likes of Shikuku.

Mudavadi is better placed to inherit the Raila’s traditional voting block more than anyone else. He is a sober man who has every attribute in his favour but the political landscape in the country does not favour him for now. The best he can do is to divide the Luhya vote but this could end up relegating him to the periphery if he doesn't marshall reasonable numbers.

I say one more time for Raila because the political wind is smelling Odinga's presidency. The Orange camp can finally sing and shout that it is coming home. I expect that with the experience that Mudavadi has, he can smell the coffee and make the right decision.

I agree with those who say that Mudavadi should be accorded the respect he deserves and I believe the respect can get bigger if he stands tall to declare ‘one more time’ for Odinga. This can happen. If it comes to pass, we can start preparing for a Luhya presidency 10 years from today.