Sympathy vote could ultimately decide Raila, Ruto's fate

ODM leader Raila Odinga with Deputy President William Ruto during the Jamuhuri Day Celebrations at Uhuru Gardens Nairobi on December 12, 2021. [Emmanuel Wanson, Standard]

The sympathy vote has always played a big role in our elections, either silently or loudly. Presidential elections have been influenced by a certain level of sympathy voting globally. The assassination of Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, for instance, paved the way for her son Rajiv to win 400 million votes in 1984.

Jomo Kenyatta was picked unopposed because it was argued that he endured suffering, detention and colonial brutality fighting for independence. Jaramogi Oginga Odinga made it known to the British that Kenyatta had political legitimacy to rule Kenya. Oginga sacrificed his ambition and even the opportunity that was prevailed upon him by the British to lead.

Daniel arap Moi, too, was loyal to Kenyatta. He endured much suffering particularly from the ‘Kiambu mafia’ and at times was sidelined from many activities. Henry Morton talks of the day Moi was summoned to meet Kenyatta in Nakuru and upon arriving, he was repeatedly humiliated by PC Isaiah Mwai Mathenge by, among others, keeping him waiting for long.

It is said that Moi came to accept his regular humiliation while persistently singing the Kenyatta tune. "If I had sung another song, do you think Kenyatta would have left me alone? You ought to sing the song I sing. If I put a full stop, you should put a full stop," he said years later. Moi, inevitably, was the preferred Kenyatta successor out of sympathy.

We all recall the Mwai Kibaki campaign trail car accident. He was later flown to London for treatment. By the time he returned, he had gained political mileage and sympathy. Thousands of people thronged the airport to welcome him back. Not long after, seated on a wheelchair, with a plastered foot and wearing a heavy neck brace, Kibaki was sworn in as Kenya's third president.

Sympathy also played a role in the election of Uhuru Kenyatta. Being among the ‘Ocampo Six’, Uhuru and Ruto enjoyed political sympathy after the ICC confirmed charges against them. This predicament was choreographed in an ecclesiastical mode of ‘trials and tribulations’ in prayer rallies featuring the two kneeling and crying in search of divine intervention. Such simple acts played a role in connecting them to voters and winning them sympathy.

The question is who between Raila Odinga and William Ruto will win this critical unseen force? As noted, Ruto has already enjoyed the sympathy vote and is pursuing the second one. His 'demotion' as DP and his claim of humiliation by State machinery may earn him sympathy vote, but time will tell. David Matsanga argues that Ruto is creating well-choreographed atmosphere that informs 'persecution syndrome' to attract voter sympathy.

On the other hand, Raila's father supported Jomo before and after 1963. They struggled together for independence and later suffered humiliation in the infamous Kisumu massacre of 1966. Kenyatta betrayed his father to the extent of banning him from politics. Raila is said to have metaphorically returned power to the House of Mumbi in 2002 after Moi, when he declared Kibaki tosha. Raila often found himself in jail for advocating multi-partyism in the 1990s. Losing many elections but still remaining calm are all likely to boost his sympathy vote in 2022.

Dr Chacha teaches at Laikipia University