Raila bid complicates matrix for Mudavadi, Wetang’ula in Western

Raila Odinga’s declaration is now seen as opening up a new battlefront for the western Kenya vote. [Job Weru, Standard]

Tough choices await Amani National Coalition (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula after ODM leader Raila Odinga announced he will contest the presidency next year. 

Although Raila said he is keen on working with other leaders, his declaration also means he is ready to go it alone without the support of his former National Super Alliance (Nasa) allies.

Raila, Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka made up the Nasa coalition which now stands dissolved. ANC, Wiper and Ford-Kenya would later team up with Kanu under the One Kenya Alliance (OKA).

Attempts to have them back Raila are yet to bear fruit, with many waiting to see the single candidate OKA will back even as major realignments loom. ?

Kanu chairman Gideon Moi, who is also Baringo Senator, and United Democratic Party’s Cyrus Jirongo attended the Azimio la Umoja convention at Kasarani Stadium on Friday where Raila announced he would be in the 2022 race. The other three party leaders skipped the event.

Raila’s declaration is now seen as opening up a new battlefront for the western Kenya vote, which could force Mudavadi and Wetangula to make tough choices.

Political analyst Martin Oloo argues that Raila’s move could result in Western and Nyanza regions sticking together politically, as has been the tradition. 

Oloo said the chances of Mudavadi going it alone are also high. “I foresee Mudavadi will choose to go all the way to the ballot. He might not go for an alliance with Raila or Deputy President William Ruto.” 

“It is a fact that Raila and Ruto are the top contenders in the 2022 race. It will be a tall order for a third force. It will not find space. However, Mudavadi has the responsibility of giving the region political direction. He ought to make an important decision which of course will come with consequences,” said the lawyer. 

Will they go it alone? Will they join Raila once again or Ruto in UDA? 

Mudavadi’s foot soldiers led by Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala and Vihiga Woman Rep Beatrice Adagala are, however, cheering them on and maintain they will clinch the presidency. 

Buoyed by Raila’s declaration on Friday, however, ODM troops and allies are plotting an onslaught on the region to ensure the vote basket is firmly under the grip of the former Prime Minister.

Dr Evans Kidero, who is vying to become Homa Bay governor, said Nyanza residents were upbeat following Raila’s declaration.

Kidero said Nyanza leaders will mobilise voters to ensure Raila wins the presidency. 

In Western, Raila’s allies have planned a major campaign to boost his support.

Cotu Secretary General Francis Atwoli is planning a major event on December 31 that will bring together politicians from the region. They will explore how to keep the vote basket in Raila’s fold. 

The move is part of efforts to ensure only candidates who subscribe to Raila’s Azimio La Umoja movement are elected in the region to lock out Mudavadi and Ruto.

The Sunday Standard has established that the developments have sent a wave of anxiety in the camps of the two leaders over the possibility that a re-energised Raila could reverse their gains in their attempt to convince the region to back one of its own. 

Yesterday, inside sources in the camps of the three leaders said strategists have retreated to craft their next political moves in the wake of looming realignments. 

Among the issues, the leaders are exploring are forming a new coalition with one of the presidential candidates, with sources in Mudavadi’s camp claiming they are exploring several possibilities. 

“It would be suicidal for Mudavadi and Wetang’ula to go it alone at the ballot. They cannot win the presidency. They need to understand that it is necessary to be strategic,” said an ANC legislator. 

At the core of the choices that await the two leaders is the elusive Luhya unity quest as they continue to struggle to stamp their authority and put the region under one roof. 

Western Kenya remains sharply divided, with all the presidential hopefuls keen on getting a slice of the region's vote. 

Raila’s ODM party still controls a substantial vote in the region and has three governors and several MPs and MCAs. 

Three days before the Kasarani declaration, ODM got a boost after Nominated MP Godfrey Osotsi ditched Mudavadi’s camp and joined it.

Ford Kenya MPs, among them, Wafula Wamunyinyi and Eseli Simiyu have also decamped.

But according to Barrack Muluka, a political commentator and communication strategist, Western remains in the fold of Mudavadi and Wetang’ula.

For Kalonzo, however, it remains to be seen whether he will respond to Ruto’s charm offensive aimed at luring him to join the DP's quest.