Wind in Raila's sail? How handshake, BBI boosted Raila's bid

ODM leader Raila Odinga during the Mt.Kenya Leaders Forum at a Nairobi hotel on December 8, 2021. [Boniface Okendo, Standard]

Last bullet. Final card. ODM leader Raila Odinga was not expected to have been a leading presidential contender in the 2022 General Election.

The forecasts were many yet the conclusion was the same – Raila fired his last shot. But he was not done after the 2017 presidential polls.

The former Prime Minister is this afternoon expected to announce his candidature for president in 2022. It will be the fifth time Raila runs for president.

The ODM leader’s dimming star was, arguably, reignited with an unexpected détente with President Uhuru Kenyatta on March 9, 2018.

Unexpected, because a month earlier, Raila stood in Uhuru Park in front of thousands of his supporters and took an oath as the "people’s president." It was a symbol of ultimate defiance to a regime he had refused to acknowledge.

Popularly known as the Handshake, Raila’s political deal with President Kenyatta took him from the fringes – where he was agitating for electoral reforms– to the centre of power. A bid for the presidency in 2022 became clear.

In effect, by coming together, the two leaders ended a crisis. There was turmoil on the streets, carnage, and loss of lives.

It ushered peace in the country, but Parliament, and especially Jubilee Party, became further partisan.

The rapprochement sparked a new round of political realignments, slowly squeezing Deputy President William Ruto out of the picture and earning Raila the support of a section of President Kenyatta’s political base which has been central to his latest presidential bid.

Raila’s ODM party had refused to recognise the government and called for a boycott of products from companies that did business or supported the government (The Resist Movement).

The ODM leader, a longtime political foe of central Kenya, was suddenly a darling of the region and some of the elected leaders.

The question of Raila succeeding Uhuru came up even before the two leaders stepped down from the steps of The President's office on Harambee Avenue and unclasped their hands.

But neither of the two leaders has conceded that their talk strayed to the President supporting the ODM leader's bid, or that he was running for presidency at all.

Uhuru has been categorical that they did not talk about succession politics but on how to end ethnic antagonism, divisive elections, corruption, lack of a national ethos and how to strengthen devolution, security as well as entrench inclusivity, shared prosperity and responsibility.

President Uhuru Kenyatta with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga at Harambee House, Nairobi. March 2018. [Courtesy]

Their discussion birthed the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) to amend the Constitution. 

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) approved the signatures in support of the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2020 on January 26 and a week later Siaya County Assembly became the first to approve the Bill. 

The Bill was simultaneously introduced in the National Assembly and Senate.

However, the BBI has floundered. The High Court and Court of Appeal have doomed the attempt to amend the Constitution. It's now at the Supreme Court's discretion.

Uhuru and Raila have said BBI was never about who will become president.

“I was hearing that this BBI is to prepare Raila Odinga to vie for the presidency. … BBI has nothing to do with his candidacy,” President Kenyatta said in August when he met editors at State House.

That Raila would run in 2022 was an open secret although he has been coy about his candidature.

Either by default or by design, the handshake and BBI have been the wind in Raila's sail.

While the BBI appears doomed, Raila has kept the momentum of the campaigns to amend the Constitution and has used it and the Handshake as the launchpad for his presidential bid.

The ODM leader has maintained that the handshake with President Kenyatta does not give him a leg up in the presidential race and does not make him a 'state project'.

Raila’s candidature has been haunted by accusations of being a state project, Uhuru’s favoured successor.

BBI's critics had dismissed it as a ploy by Raila to reinvent himself politically and ascend to the presidency. 

Eventually, it enabled the ODM leader to come up with Azimio la Umoja which makes a case for the same values that BBI promoted - reconciliation, nationhood, inclusivity and an end to divisive politics.