UDA losses in by-elections jolt Ruto’s 2022 game plan

Wiper Candidate for the Machakos Senatorial By Election Agnes Kavindu Wins. later Presents the winners certificate to Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka at the Wiper Headquarters in Karen, Nairobi. (PICTURES BY DENNIS KAVISU)

The poor performance by United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in the recent by-elections and its subsequent withdrawal from the upcoming Juja Constituency mini-poll has exposed the soft underbelly of the party associated with Deputy President William Ruto.

As UDA was trying to come to terms with the losses, its stalwart, Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa, announced he was temporarily disassociating with the Tangatanga wing of the Jubilee Party that is led by the DP.

Mr Barasa said he had taken up a new role to reconcile factions within the Luhya community ahead on 2022 elections. However, the latest move by Barasa, who has been at the forefront campaigning for UDA, has left many questions unanswered.

The MP, who addressed the media at his Nasianda home in Kimilili Constituency in Bungoma said he would henceforth seek to prioritise interests of the Luhya community over those of Tangatanga.

“If interests of the community supersede those of my Tangatanga faction, I will support those of the community,” said Barasa.

He called on leaders of various political factions in the region to unite to enable the community to get a better position at the national table ahead of the next elections.

UDA suffered resounding defeats in the by-elections in Kabuchai and Matungu constituencies on March 4, which were won by Musalia Mudavadi- led ANC Ford-Kenya, that is under the leadership of Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula.

The party was also humiliated in the Machakos senatorial by-election that was won by Wiper candidate Agnes Kavindu Muthama, who garnered 104,352 votes against UDA candidate Urbanus Ngengele’s 19,726 last Thursday.

The Ruto-linked party only won the by-election in London Ward, Nakuru County.

The losses are likely to jolt Ruto’s 2022 game plan, coming after his spirited efforts to establish a foothold, especially in the western, Mt Kenya and Coast regions.

Last week UDA announced that it would not field a candidate in the Juja by-election scheduled for May 18.

Yesterday Mudavadi said outcomes from the mini-polls pointed to the reality on the ground ahead of 2022.

Some political figures have perfected the art of renting crowds to attend their political rallies to create an impression that they are popular, only for them to be disappointed at the ballot, said Mudavadi.

Kimilili MP Didmus Baraza. [David Njaaga,Standard]

“The wheelbarrow narrative was tested at the ballot, and it has dawned on them that it is not just about rallies where crowds are rented; when it comes to the vote, people have different views,” he said.

He said UDA’s withdrawal from the Juja poll was a result of its dismal performance in the recent mini-polls.

“They tried a narrative to show he (Ruto) has captured the imagination of the people of Mt Kenya, but the reality has now dawned on them. UDA’s withdrawal from the Juja race shows they have gone back to the drawing board,” said Mudavadi.

Mwala MP Vincent Musyoka blamed UDA’s loss in Machakos to alleged use of State machinery in favour of Wiper’s candidate. Mr Musyoka, an ally of Ruto, claimed there was heavy deployment of police officers that occasioned voter apathy.

“Before the election day, Mutua (Alfred) withdrew the Maendeleo Chap Chap candidate in favour of Wiper’s after he was summoned to State House. The candidate did not withdraw out of his own will. You also heard Mutua say they don’t want UDA in the area. Why would they single out UDA if it is not a threat to them,” Musyoka said.

He added that voters were scared by the presence of police officers, opting to stay away. “Out of the over 600,000 registered voters in Machakos County, more than 500,000 did not vote. The voters were so scared. The voter apathy was a protest after they learnt the State was pushing a particular candidate,” he said.?

Cotu Secretary-General Francis Atwoli termed UDA a briefcase party that had failed to make any political impact.

Mr Atwoli said the UDA losses, especially in Matungu and Kabuchai, show the many people who attended Ruto’s political rallies were either ferried or paid to attend, as their presence did not translate to votes.

“We have many parties formed after multi-party democracy and have no impact. UDA will be among such parties,” said Mr Atwoli.

He added: “What the top leadership of hustler nation has been doing is ferry people to create perception of popularity, but when it came to the ballot, they had no impact. The reality has dawned and everyone has realised he has no support. He has been in Western and you have seen huge crowds attending his rallies, but when it comes to voting they are nowhere.”

Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo Jnr said Ruto’s plan to popularise his party failed spectacularly.

The party has learnt the hard way and must change strategy going into the next elections, he said.

“They were trying to popularise the party in other regions but they only achieved nuisance value. In future they will have to be more calculative,” said Mr Mutula Jnr.

Nominated MP Godfrey Osotsi blamed UDA’s losses on their rush to participate in elections before putting up party structures.

He said it was difficult for people to associate with UDA when Ruto was yet to declare his membership in the party.

“UDA is formed today and they go for by-elections. They have jumped the gun; the party has not been marketed, but are already jumping into by-elections... they are biting more than they can chew,” said Mr Osotsi.

Aldai MP Cornelly Serem and political analyst Edward Kisiangani said UDA performed well, being a new party, citing the decision by other parties to gang up against it.

Serem said the decision by ANC, Ford Kenya and Wiper to gang up against UDA in the mini-polls shows the party is a force in Kenyan politics. “In Machakos all parties united against us. In Nakuru they prevailed upon other parties to pull out of the race. It shows we are a force to reckon with,” said Mr Serem.

Prof Kisiangani said the results were encouraging for a new party, citing Feisal Bader’s win in Msambweni. Bader was an independent candidate but backed by Ruto.