Why Uhuru’s dithering could cost him grip of his backyard

President Uhuru Kenyatta addresses delegates at Sagana State Lodge. [Kabata Kihu, Standard]

It looks like President Uhuru Kenyatta is in that dreaded political life cycle.

He is gaining political baggage weight, having night sweats on who succeeds him, a demand for endorsements and even some of his Cabinet members pulling in opposite directions.

Like the man who mentored him in politics – late former President Daniel Arap Moi – Uhuru has staked his neck out to influence the choice of his successor, taking a big gamble at the twilight of his political career.

The twilight? Maybe. Maybe not. The difference with Uhuru and his mentor is that he has been dithering.

“I never said we shall elect so and so. I only said we shall support whoever was more popular than the others. And I said we should widen our circle of friends so that we are safe, whoever is in power,” he told a group of leaders at Sagana State Lodge on Friday.

“We shall never accept to let others thrive due to our own fears.” 

The president finds himself in a difficult position within his backyard months to the end of his tenure.

President Uhuru Kenyatta at Sagana State Lodge. [PSCU]

Even as he flickered on bad health, Uhuru’s father, Jomo, retained a grip on his backyard, with government hawks nipping in the bud a hurricane rebellion to bar Moi from succeeding the founder president.

In 2002, despite the storm that anointing of Uhuru had roused in Kanu, Moi retained an iron grip in his Rift Valley backyard that would go on to vote to the last man for his preferred successor.

Even former president Mwai Kibaki, a more cautious politician, retained grip of the Mt Kenya backyard to the end of his term. Though as a hands-off politician, he executed expert moves through delegations that cleared the path for Uhuru to emerge as the undisputed successor.

Uhuru has carefully avoided giving covert or overt blessings to any particular player in the backyard.

This week, it appeared he was throwing back the challenge to the growing constellation of hopeful candidates seeking to inherit the vote-rich backyard. But Uhuru has maintained that he will be actively involved in succession politics to ensure his successor will not mess with his legacy and will continue with his development scorecard.

President Kenyatta, who yesterday held a round table meeting with 48 MPs from Mt Kenya, including six from ‘diaspora Constituencies’ like Lamu, Kajiado and Nakuru, added that he will lead the Mt Kenya leaders in selecting the best placed leaders to take over the leadership baton from him when the best opportune time presents itself.

After holding a meeting that majorly addressed the gains that will be brought by the BBI in the Mt Kenya region, he had a dinner with his loyalists and lieutenants at Chaka Ranch, where he held a candid discussion with them on his intentions to leave the country in safe hands.

Leaders who were present told the Sunday Standard that the president advised them to first popularise the BBI to residents without responding to their Tangatanga wing of Jubilee who have been against the initiative. But it was also clear that he would be active in succession politics of the region and the country at large.

Kiambu Woman Representative Gathoni Wamuchomba said the president told them he was not interested in post-2022 politics, but would be keen on knowing who takes the baton from him.

“The Head of State told us that this is the time for popularising BBI and to demystify facts from myths, which have been sold to our people by Tangatanga. He said when the time comes to choose his heir in Mt Kenya, he will join Murang’a, Kiambu and any other county in Mt Kenya region to see who is the best placed person to take the baton  from him,” said Wamuchomba.

“But for now, he said it is time to ensure our region is secure so that whoever will come will get it loaded with money. He also wants to make sure anybody who comes after him in 2022 does not mess up with his legacy, and that he continues with the development score card.”

Not respond to Ruto

Wamuchomba added that the president said he would not respond to Deputy President William Ruto and his allies who have made it a habit of attacking him and writing him letters.

He said they were on a trajectory to derail him from actualising his desire for the nation.

“He was very clear that he will not get into an exchange match with Tangatanga, saying he will let them write letters and he will not respond,” she said.

According to the legislator, Uhuru told the them that his Handshake partner, Raila Odinga, was informed about his “one man one shilling one vote” proposal in the Constitution and that he (Raila) appreciated that the clarion call was sensitive to the President and Mt Kenya region.

Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu also confirmed that President Kenyatta told them to first focus on BBI and later have a bargaining table about the region’s political way forward.

“He wants to play a major role in securing the region’s interests in future governments by way of having the interests included in the Constitution,” said Wambugu.

“He stressed that he wants to make sure that his region’s stake is secure regardless of the nature of the president who will be elected.”

Another MP, who sought anonymity, said the president appeared to prepare himself for an all-out political war against his deputy. 

“The President said when the time comes, he will also get to the sunroof of his car like some leaders and address the country to separate lies from the truth. He said some leaders tell Kenyans they will perform as if they are not in government,” the MP said.

Uhuru’s interests to have a say on who takes after him is daring but a bold political move, given that Kibaki avoided the debate.

Kibaki, despite having so many political suitors who were desperately looking for his endorsement, decided to watch the political landscape take shape.

When Moi picked Uhuru to succeed him in 2002, the president’s backyard of Rift Valley solidly voted for Kenyatta.

However, in Mt Kenya, almost half of the leadership has defied Kenyatta and differed with his views on early campaigns and the BBI, a government project birthed by the president himself.

And despite the president’s declaration that he will lead in activities to get his heir, Tangatanga leaders maintain that a time has come to break the yokes of grouping the country into ethnic and tribal regions and that they have replaced the old narrative with the Hustler narrative, which they say has no tribe. “We mean what we say, we are breaking the ethnic tribal cards and replacing it with the Hustler narrative, which means approaching the politics from bottom up,” said Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro.

Tangatanga leaders also want the president to follow in Kibaki’s footsteps and avoid the succession politics like a plague.

Political analysts have different opinions on the president’s decision to be active even after the expiry of his term. 

Political commentator Gitile Naituri says President Kenyatta has no alternative but to behave like Kibaki and trust Kenyans to have a choice of their leader.

Prof Naituli fears that the president’s hand in 2022 succession politics may mess his own legacy.

However, Joseph Gikonyo, a political commentator from Kiambu, said the president has a considerable following in Mt Kenya and his decision to play active politics was a serious threat to Ruto’s 2022 presidential ambitions.

“People are only mad with the president because they miss him. Should he camp in the region and decide to let the cat out of the bag by explaining the reason for their fallout, Ruto will be in for a rude shock since locals will side with Uhuru,” Gikonyo said. 

“Ruto can get a sizeable amount of votes from the region but not good enough to make him president. Ruto should be a very worried man if his boss will be active in politics.”