Time to bite the bullet and impose lockdown

The novel coronavirus infections appear to be in a free fall going by the daily confirmed cases.

From highs of 20, the Health ministry has reported at most six infections per day in the past three days.

That sounds like good news. But it is not worth celebrating, according to the Health officials who are convinced there are hundreds of infected people out there. The officials still hold their initial position that coronavirus cases could hit 10,000 by end of April. Community testing, they argue, would vindicate their position.

Ten thousand is a mind-boggling and gut-wrenching figure. But it is not far-fetched. It follows a familiar trajectory; just look at Italy, UK, US, Spain and other countries where people are dying like flies. If we will have 10,000 cases by end of April, how many shall we have in May, June, July? Soon, it’s clear, it will be our turn to face Armageddon.

Why? Because–and this is my honest opinion–the government decided to follow the well-trodden path; one that has led many countries to untold pain and suffering.

Worse, despite evidence to the contrary, the government on several occasions exuded confidence that it had the muscle to take on coronavirus. That bravado has already shrivelled going by its current tone and tune.

Truth is, Kenya is ill-prepared — in fact incapable — of handling a full-blown coronavirus crisis. If our government is sincere, it should have declared at the onset, like Uganda, that it lacks the wherewithal to deal with this monster. Both personnel and equipment are in short supply. But we cannot blame our government; other countries grappling with the pandemic, US and UK included, are crying out for help; health workers, ventilators and protective gear —anything!

The secret to defeat coronavirus is not treatment, it is prevention. Closing schools, pubs, churches and partial shutdown of some counties is laudable. Urging people to maintain social distance and to constantly wash hands are good interventions.

However, these measures are unlikely to hand us victory. This is because not everyone is observing them. That’s why it is important to take the extreme step — lock down the country. This measure, of course, would have been more efficient while we had fewer cases. But better late than never.

UK and Spain have been reporting fewer infections since they imposed lockdowns. The situation is the opposite in the US which, like Kenya, has no strict lockdown. Well, no one is saying that a lockdown is the cure for Covid-19, but it looks like the best option at the moment.

The fear around a lockdown is that our economy will suffer and it will be hard for those who live from hand to mouth to subsist. These fears are valid. But it is worth noting that the economy is already off-kilter; businesses have scaled down operations and others have closed down; Kenyans have lost jobs while others have been sent on unpaid leave and the NSE has suffered a massive blow.

As the coronavirus rampage gains momentum, the economy will be turned on its head. That’s why we must take drastic action now. No one says a lockdown will be a walk in the park. People will go hungry and businesses will suffer more. But that will be for a short time. Within that period, testing should be scaled up, and hopefully majority, if not all, of the infected people isolated.

That route that has been taken even by some African countries. South Africa, Rwanda and Zimbabwe are on lockdown. These countries will most likely defeat the virus ahead of us if we stay on the current path.

And who said Kenyans are afraid of a lockdown? Majority — 68 per cent of the population — believes a lockdown is the weapon that will defeat this pandemic, according to a poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting. If leaders exist to do the people’s bidding; if democracy is the rule of the majority, government must listen to these voices.

If it does and chooses to impose a lockdown, certain things must be made crystal clear. Food supplies must be allowed to continue flowing and people must be allowed to go shopping and the sick to seek health services without their limbs being broken by brutal police officers.

The government and well-wishers — they are already doing it — must support the vulnerable during this difficult period. Rwanda is doing it. Is there any reason Kenya, the undisputed regional economic powerhouse, shouldn’t?

Meanwhile, we must choose whether to take the long, winding road to the unknown or whether to try the shortcut like Rwanda and Zimbabwe. We must decide whether it will be more costly to stay indoors for 14 or 21 days, or to wait for the cases to hit thousands in the months to come as predicted by the government.

Mr Kinuthia is The Standard’s Op-Ed editor