Critical issues as we move towards the referendum

Although many political scientists consider referendums messy and dangerous, Kenyans seem to be headed for a plebiscite. And as calls for constitutional review gather momentum, politicians seem to be taking the driving seat, shouting themselves hoarse and strategising how to best benefit as mwananchi takes a beating.

Total confusion for Wanjiku. Why? First, I’m always sceptical and suspicious when politicians are the prime movers of anything in this country. Not that it is always all bad. The reality is that politicians would want to hijack the whole process and run away with everything in the name of representing the electorate. They are deeply interested in this matter of constitutional review and left to their own devices, they will expand and expand the scope. And laugh all the way, as before.

Kenyans may end up making decisions with relatively little information, forcing them to rely on political messaging, which puts power in the hands of political elites rather than theirs. This is because, like elsewhere in the world, Kenyan voters will face a choice in the referendum: They need to distill difficult policy choices down to a simple yes or no, and predict the outcome of complex decisions.

So, what would they do? The voter follows the guidance of trusted authority figures or fits the choice in a familiar narrative. Politicians or other powerful actors will then re-frame the referendum into simplistic, straightforward narratives. The result is that votes become less about the actual policy question than about contests between abstract values, or between which narrative Kenyans find more appealing. And this is just starting to happen.

To ascertain

Second, if truth be told, this is precisely why there is a need to have an audit and understand what’s wrong with the current Constitution. Not that there is everything right with it. There is a need for an audit to ascertain what’s working and what may not be working. The Constitution was promulgated about eight years ago, and to change it will require some reasoning.

Third, we need to have a law on which to anchor the referendum. At the moment, there is no such law. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is in the doldrums and more work awaits it with the census, electoral delimitation and the 2022 election beckoning.

Kenya is clearly over-represented. Do we need 47 governors or counties? Governors have already realised this, and that’s why they are forming economic blocs that have the capacity to improve livelihoods and create jobs. These blocs should be the basis of the devolved structure. At the legislative level, we have 62 senators and 348 members of the National Assembly, making it a total of 410 MPs. And with 900 nominated MCAs who serve no purpose except patronage, it’s everyone for himself.

Fourth, an audit should indicate how devolution is progressing. Various groups have been calling for a referendum for different reasons, including the need to tame the soaring public wage bill, strengthen devolution and redress electoral injustices. But the clamor to overhaul the governance structure is being fuelled mainly by concerns about the bloated wage bill, a soaring public debt that has burdened Kenyans with taxes and the charged political environment every electioneering period. How will the plebiscite deal with such issues?

Sustain operations

Many counties are not viable ventures. Many of them do not collect enough revenue from within their borders to sustain their operations but wait upon the national government for transfers so that they can pay salaries. This explains why, in some counties, staff go without salaries for months on end.

Although the devolved structure of 47 counties was meant to decentralise power and resources, not much has been achieved save the dispersing of 15 per cent of the national revenue to counties. The national government retains 85 per cent. This huge concentration of resources at the centre means that the central government still has a huge influence on the governance structure of the country and therefore generates a lot of interest from communities and regions. How can this system be strengthened and made more effective and responsive to the needs of Kenyan?

Ultimately, the ambient noise of Kenyan politics may end up distorting popular will: Whether one party is up or down in the end, whether intra-party infighting over the vote spills into the public sphere and how the media shall portray related issues may all play a role in the referendum. Kenyan voters could end up appending their approval to politicians’ plans, eroding their own rights, and accomplishing one thing: doing nothing for themselves.

Prof Mogambi, a development communication and social change expert, teaches at the University of Nairobi: hmogambi @ yahoo.co.uk