Why Raila Odinga will not take the oath

Raila Odinga might not take the much-publicised oath after all. All indicators have shown a man who is interested in dialogue rather than the oath-taking option.

On several occasions, Mr. Odinga has refused to take the oath after his supporters attempted to ambush him with the bible. This, he said, was to give room to the government to engage them in dialogue.

The government headed by Uhuru Kenyatta has given the whole event a wide berth terming it an exercise in futility.

What isn't clear is what will happen after Raila-Kalonzo duo takes the oath. Where will they derive their power from, will they have a standing army or the police to enforce law? Will they have the other arms of government including the judiciary? These are some of the pertinent issues that have clouded their event.

Raila and Kalonzo have been leaders of immense repute globally. Would they risk all this by partaking in such an outlawed event? 

The police have said that they will not allow the opposition access to Uhuru Park where they are expected to take the oath. This is a clear indicator of how that will lead to running battles between the police and the opposition who have remained adamant that they will hold their event at the said venue.

This is reminiscent of the time the opposition supremo was getting back into the country from his trip abroad. Nairobi witnessed intense battles between the police and the opposition. Would this be replayed on Tuesday? Will the opposition use this as an excuse to further postpone the oath taking ceremony? Only time will tell!