NASA choice was most pragmatic

NASA unveiled their presidential candidate on Thursday, putting an end to the long and sometimes acrimonious process that lasted over a year. The event was well attended, reminiscent of past mega rallies at Uhuru Park. The principals compared it to the 2002 unveiling of NARC, and drew parallels between the Pentagon of 2007 and the current Pentagon. As a lot of Kenyans expected, Raila Odinga will carry the NASA flag in the August election. This was a pragmatic decision, because Raila has fanatical following in the Nyanza counties, parts of the former Western Province and the coastal counties. Essentially, he has the numbers.

Jubilee immediately pounced on the announcement with claims of “we’ve beaten this team before, we can do it again”. And the bizarre argument that NASA is only interested in getting power. Bizarre because politics all over the world is about getting power first, and then implementing an agenda. Without power, even the best agenda is simply an opinion. For the former claim, the current NASA team has the same ticket as 2013 at the top, but there are differences in the context of the election. For one, the ICC is no longer an election issue. Secondly, Raila has single-handedly made this election about two issues – corruption and devolution. These issues are where Jubilee is weakest – a rebellion by governors early in their term and a devastating doctors strike were both the result of reluctance by the Jubilee government to devolve functions and funds. Scandals unearthed during Uhuru Kenyatta’s tenure have had the government constantly playing defense. We must also recognise that the Jubilee ticket is also the same as 2013, so their criticism of the NASA line-up is a case of the pot calling the kettle black.

This election has an incumbent running, and various parts of the country feel that the Jubilee government has not served their interests. Across the country, the president and his deputy woo Opposition leaders with the promise of ‘development’, which implies that leaders and regions supporting NASA are and will be isolated or marginalised. Examples of this neglect abound – the land distribution to squatters at the coast, where they were obligated to pay sums out of their reach in order to get title deeds. This land issue and the treatment of Governor Joho has bred resentment that will cost Jubilee in the coastal counties. A prelude of this was the Malindi by-election where Willy Mtengo of ODM won despite an elaborate campaign by Jubilee that involved the president spending a month in the region. The plight of sugar farmers in the western counties is also a relevant example.

There can be many arguments made about the upcoming general election, but a guaranteed election issue that has already raised political temperatures during the party nominations is devolution, and specifically the independence of county leadership. With this in mind, the leaders of the two campaigns for more funds to counties – Pesa Mashinani and Okoa Kenya – are in NASA. This is a strong advantage across the country. Isaac Ruto has essentially been charged with devolution matters in NASA, an issue that very easily united the entire Council of Governors including Jubilee governors during the first years of the Jubilee administration. On the other hand, Jubilee has been lukewarm on devolution, with the Budget and Appropriations Committee of the National Assembly (controlled by Jubilee) suggesting the abolition of the Senate, and the appointment of governors by the president.

The election on August 8^th is still a little over three months away, and many surprises may yet be in store on the political scene, but as things stand now, NASA has made the most optimal decision to present a real and present threat to a Uhuru re-election.