Expect more fireworks after political parties' nominations fiasco

I had long predicted that nominations for major parties will not be smooth and likely to have significant levels of unfairness in their strongholds. The Busia nominations for the governor and the Jubilee first attempts have already proved me right. May I still whisper something more from the import of research we have carried all over the nation. Expect even repeat exercise to be highly contested and with endless disputes.

Anybody who has followed Kenya’s politics for long can tell you that today a political seat is one of the most desired jobs in Kenya. It is simply lucrative and at the apex of many professionals and business people careers. It a strange phenomenon. But look also the presidency has grown to be a tribal investment that every community feels they would want their son or daughter to occupy it and this lies in the experiences this nation has had since independence. It is evidently clear that we set our politics the wrong direction once we felt that having your own is when you will have anything to do with development. This is one of the reasons why devolution has become very popular in Kenya. There is a feeling devolution has brought state resources closer to people. Whether those resources are used properly or not they are being felt at the grassroots level.

What next? The gubernatorial seat and the MCA seat has become the most sought in this campaign in terms of the relative kind of investments and level of entrants that we have seen. While of course there are others who have positioned themselves in the other seats (Senator, MP, and Women Rep) I can tell that the county elective seats are being seen as a goldmine. The resources being pushed at the counties are a great attraction. One should expect that going forward there will be more agitation for more funds going into counties. With the notion that the big five tribes (Kikuyu, Luhya, Luo, Kalenjin and Kamba) have a higher propensity to produce leadership at the Presidential level , going by the past experiences, expect that there will be agitation for more funds at the grassroots. Some of the areas especially the northern frontier counties have some strong feelings and attachments to devolution owing to the more positive experiences the last four years. There are others where devolution has meant some major positive developments which hitherto were either rare or not seen.

One can recall that Constituency Development Fund (CDF) became very popular when it was first introduced after NARC came to power in 2002. It had to do with the touch with the grassroots. Today county funds are very popular for the same reasons. Moreover, in a country where we suffer too many problems with corruption there is always a feeling of time to eat. Well, it is not easy to combat this vice in Kenya but we must keep the eye on the ball otherwise this is one of the biggest hiccups to our development. But keeping to nominations, who in his or her right senses with desire to politics and with the same to get his hands in influencing use of state resources would let just go. The county ones are the easiest to touch and hence the popularity of the county elective seat. Becoming a governor in a county in Kenya today is akin to becoming a certain region traditional king. Resources become yours for having and dispensing at your choices.

With politics becoming very lucrative and with power, splendour, fame and resources (note MPs have also fought to retain CDF) and with expectations that you don’t have to do a very hard work to achieve much expect the fights for political seats to get uglier. Many more will want them. The more want them the uglier the contest become. After all in Kenya to qualify to be a politician the bar is not very high. All you need is have money (whatever the source), have some networks or have a big clan or your tribe behind you.

The nominations will have more and more challenges. There is always a problem of favoritism from power echelons with a future mindset. There are also moguls who want to invest in certain candidates and throwing in other dynamics like clans and villages plus tribes and sub tribes this game become rather ugly. Expect more fireworks some of ugly shades when these nominations are repeated and during the election proper.