Opposition unity clamour is usual selfish narrative

Opposition leaders Musalia Mudavadi(left) Kalonzo Musyoka(center)Raila Odinga,Moses wetangula and Nick Salat during the launch of NASA at Bomas of Kenya . (Photo: Beverlyne Musili/Standard)

Sitting down to discuss politics last year, one of my mentors introduced me to an interesting book published in 1841. It was Charles Mackay’s “Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.” One of my best quotes from this book is that ‘men go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.’

It was interesting to watch bits of the umpteenth re-launch of a united opposition platform at Bomas of Kenya this week. Same crowd. Same narratives.

There is significant doubt if they will stick together. Yet for some reason, there is a broad sense of excitement about this new-old formation that strangely enough is positioned as the representation of change.

Seemingly, they seem to have stumbled upon a truth that has been elusive to them for a while: Elections are about votes.

They will now focus on getting voters registered in their strongholds. I suppose we should congratulate them for coming to this realisation, albeit late in the day. This realisation, if anything, is what should worry Jubilee the most. As the Swahili people say, ‘mjinga akierevuka, mwerevu yu mashakani.’

But I struggle to see the change that these people claim to represent. Just because they are not in government does not mean they are better; it just means that they lost. If anything, we know most of these people and we know that they are not better. They are just different people.

In 2002, we saw the creation of a united opposition to take on President Moi’s preferred successor, Uhuru Kenyatta.

Under the leadership of Mwai Kibaki, the opposition was united against 24 years of misrule by Moi. The NARC wave captured the imagination of the Kenyan people. It gave us hope that it was possible for things to change. They won overwhelmingly but the union fell apart soon after.

Then came 2007 which saw a new alliance to challenge the Kibaki regime which they termed as exclusionary and accused of promoting ethnic chauvinism. But in bringing together ethnic kingpins to drum up the numbers, they reproduced and sharpened the ethnic dimension of the election so that winning literally became a matter of life and death. Their message then was: “Vote for us because your guy is with us.” Crisis unfolded, they came into leadership through the Grand Coalition government and we had a chance to see that these folks were all really just the same.

Rather than a 2002 scenario, this new unit seems to be more like a repeat of 2007. No new people. No new ideas. It’s just the same old people who have re-learnt the lesson that they need to come together to win. In this regard, I think that “United against Jubilee” was perhaps the most apt headline this week. Unsurprisingly, we hear that changing the Constitution to accommodate their interests is on the table.

It seems that we have come along away to find ourselves at the same place where we started. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

Nonetheless, we cannot discount the crowd psychology that Mackay was writing about in 1841. It might actually work in their favour, if they stick together and generate enough razzmatazz. As Mackay notes: “We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”

Nothing is easier for an opposition to do. Except that rather than complaining that Jubilee used colorful images to capture the minds of people, they should focus on finding better ones.

The challenge for Jubilee, which appears to have taken the path of championing its development agenda, is much harder.

The opposition can mobilise groups and capture their imagination on the illusion that they represent a much needed change. Jubilee will have to convert people one by one to show what they have done since 2013. They should have started sooner. Elections are about crowds, delusions and madness. Grab you popcorn.

It’s the season.