Tyranny of numbers is a beatable fallacy

Acting ODM secretary general Agnes Zani

The conspiracy of purported tyranny of numbers cannot be supported by facts. Numbers obtained from the voter registration information provided by IEBC on pages 7 - 9 of the ‘Submissions by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to the Joint Parliamentary Select Committee on matters relating to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’ dated August 1, 2016, show that CORD will win.

Total registered voters during the March 4, 2013 General Election were 14,388,781. The IEBC registered 181,018 voters after the March 4, 2013 General Election in the continuous voter registration (CVR) process.

In 2013, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri and Nyandarua counties had 2.4 million voters. Upper Eastern region of Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi Counties had about 0.9 million registered voters while Nakuru and Laikipia in Rift Valley had 0.88 million voters.

Bomet, Kericho, Baringo, Nandi, Elgeyo Marakwet and Uasin Gishu where Jubilee won had 1.6 million registered voters. From the above two strongholds, Jubilee had roughly 5.8 million votes. Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega and Vihiga Counties had 1.53 million registered voters. Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii and Nyamira had 2.1 million voters.

Makueni, Machakos and Kitui had 1.12 million voters. Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Lamu and Tana River counties had 1.15 million registered voters. CORD therefore had roughly 5.9 million votes from its stronghold regions while Jubilee had roughly 5.8 million votes.

Raila Odinga’s performance in counties within Rift Valley, Upper Eastern, North Eastern and Nairobi is also important to note. Odinga also garnered 105,600 votes from the cosmopolitan Nakuru County hence there was no absolute voting for one particular candidate even in Jubilee strongholds.

Most recent data projecting the scenario in 2017 from www.kenyaelectiondatabase.co.ke suggests that the “Big Five” main ethnic groups comprising the Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin, Luo and Kamba make up 64 per cent of Kenya’s population, hence can influence the results of any presidential elections. Out of these “Big Five”, the Kikuyu (8.2 million people) and Kalenjin (6.2 million) support the Jubilee party while the Luhya (6.6 million), Luo (5 million) and Kamba (4.8 million) support the CORD coalition.

The next six ethnic groups in ranking account for 26 per cent of the Kenya citizen population: Kenya Somali (2.9 million), Kisii (2.7 million), Mijikenda (2.4 million), Meru (2 million), Turkana (1.2 million) and Maasai (1 million). Hence the top 11 ranked ethnic groups will have a projected population of more than 43 million in 2017, accounting for more than 90 per cent of Kenya’s population. Their estimated voter potential will be 17.4 million if 80 per cent voter registration is achieved or 19.6 million if 90 per cent is achieved.

Out of the top 11 ethnic groups, Jubilee controls only 3 ethnic groups with 6.6 million estimated voters if 80 per cent registration is achieved while CORD mostly controls 6 ethnic groups with 9.2 million estimated voters. A total estimated 1.5 million constitute the Maasai and Somali vote if 80 per cent registration is achieved. CORD’s voters are projected to be 10.3 million, exceeding Jubilee’s 9 million if 80per cent voter registration is achieved. These figures are proportional to the percentage increase in voter registration with the margins increasing with higher voter registration.

All said and done, CORD is in a position to win the 2017 elections and the argument of tyranny of numbers does not hold water. The tyranny of numbers narrative is a fallacy and an illusion that is well choreographed to box Kenyans into submission that Jubilee is undefeatable. Kenyans therefore have a date with destiny and a rare opportunity to set the country back on the recovery path and transformation for the generations to come.

CORD strongholds must maximise mobilisation, registration, voting and protecting the vote. The 2017 elections provide an opportunity for a clear win especially with the super alliance in the offing.