Next year’s election will probably be a replay of the same old script

First, it is a settled matter of fact that almost all Kenyans know who to vote for in the presidential race. Most, and I would be happy to be proved wrong, are just waiting to see who clinches their favourite party’s ticket for MCA, senator, woman rep and other seats.PHOTO: COURTESY

The carnival mood is here, again. As the clock ticks to the next General Election, the stage has been set for a very old ritual. Politicians, even those who have not been to the village since they were elected, are keeping tabs on funerals and scheduling appearances at churches, women group meetings and every other gathering. All of a sudden, the village love bug has bitten politicians.

Their aides now go round dimly-lit village pubs and order a drink for everyone around, in exchange of course for votes come next year. All manner of elders have also sprung into existence and are endorsing everyone who is willing to recognise and “appreciate” them. We are not supposed to say this, but being pessimists forged on the anvil of time, we shall say it and be damned.

In quite a number of places, men, women and youth groups are flocking to politicians’ homes or local playgrounds. There, they are asked to queue for a Sh1,000 note or two. What’s more, mobile phone chat groups are being formed by people purporting to support certain candidates, probably angling for campaign money. Funny that at formal forums, you’d think we have a serious democratic function to hold next year. The reality on the ground, however, is starkly opposite.

First, it is a settled matter of fact that almost all Kenyans know who to vote for in the presidential race. Most, and I would be happy to be proved wrong, are just waiting to see who clinches their favourite party’s ticket for MCA, senator, woman rep and other seats.

Granted, some aspirants for seats other than the presidency may sail through on the “wrong” ticket, maybe because they are popular in their own right or are in the big clans’ good books. In most cases, however, and especially in the presidential candidates’ backyards, clinching the popular party ticket in the nominations will be as good as winning the election. You see the party, our party, does more than half the job!

From a democratic perspective, this predictability is quite sad. For it means we have not learnt from our past mistakes. Even after those who fooled us with free booze and packets of maize ahead of 2013 disappeared, we still await their return, this time sent from above – in choppers. They will then convince us that leaders are sent from above, and before the whirl of the chopper dissipates, handouts will sadly have wiped away our five-year floods of tears.

Even though some were never seen again after slaughtering tens of bulls during their homecoming parties – which my MP did not bother to organise – they will still return to convince us that we need to “unite” because “our enemies are plotting to finish us.” And as the jobless youths in the villages get ‘thirstier’, and with ever more cheaper drinks being served in the mushrooming one-square-yard village pubs, cash replaces the manifesto and gets the youth chanting slogans.

This is because even after we promulgated our very progressive Constitution, we did not follow through that potential revolution with civic education to peel the eyes of wananchi, to make them see that we had ushered a new order. So, as we speak, aspirants are having their names and mugshots printed on reflector jackets which will be dished out to boda boda riders.

This, mind you, is not out of safety concerns in the wake of boda boda accidents. You see, these young men offer a cheap billboard to announce the candidature of those who eat on behalf of the tribe. All around the country, political brokers are dusting off their CVs and dashing to Nairobi to see mheshimiwa for campaign jobs. Expect that some people will be kicked out of office and others will stay in power; but not because of new behaviour patterns among voters.

Here, change never comes by way of voters changing the way they look at elections. Change comes when aspirants align their bids and form alliances to benefit from the same old voting patterns. No wonder the big parties are very clear on where (not) to campaign. Y-a-w-n!