Raila must repackage himself as the political landscape is jolted yet again

It’s unlikely that Raila’s ODM, the principal partner in the CORD coalition, can crank up the planned, week-end long 10-year party celebrations to match or even eclipse the Jubilee grandeur unfolding in Nairobi. Politics is about perceptions.PHOTO: COURTESY

The tectonic plates that shape the country’s political landscape are set to shift again. In terms of proportion, the launch of Jubilee Party perhaps compares to the momentous political developments witnessed in 1991, 2002 and 2008. They’re moments that changed our politics in fundamental ways.

In 1991, within the backdrop of a wave of democratisation sweeping across the globe, multipartyism was ushered in following the repeal of section 2A of the Constitution.

A quarter of a century later the jury on our dalliance with multipartyism is still out there. For some it’s been a mixed bag of outcomes.

Multipartyism faced perhaps its sternest test in 2002, when the ruling party Kanu merged with Raila Odinga’s NDP, the main opposition party at the time. The endeavour quickly fell apart when Moi’s preferred successor became evident. The rest is history.

However, it’s the violence that followed the 2007 disputed presidential election that would unleash forces which continue to define and shape our politics. And, the ripples will be felt for many more years to come.

First, the post-election violence gave birth to a power-sharing arrangement under a Grand Coalition government. And although the country enjoyed relative political calm during this period, critics say it effectively muted the opposition and posed a threat to multipartyism.

Secondly, the post-election violence put us on the international spotlight, complete with the ignominy of our leaders being dragged before the ICC.

Thirdly, and completely by default, it laid the foundation for and gave impetus to a new political formation that would capture power in 2013.

The launch of the Jubilee Party, therefore, perpetuates this political roller coaster. However, in some quarters, there is growing unease and anxiety that this development could pose renewed threat to multipartyism.

And, as Jubilee’s dominant party experiment begins something odd sticks out like a sore thumb: For the very first time since 1982 Raila isn’t a key player in an event that has far-reaching political ramifications for the future of the country. The initiative, it would seem, has been wrested from him. Raila has been thrust into the unusual and unenviable position of playing catch up.

It’s unlikely that Raila’s ODM, the principal partner in the CORD coalition, can crank up the planned, week-end long 10-year party celebrations to match or even eclipse the Jubilee grandeur unfolding in Nairobi. Politics is about perceptions.

With nearly a dozen affiliates dissolved and merged into one giant party Jubilee is consolidating and entrenching itself in power. A second-term for President Uhuru Kenyatta is the immediate-term goal.

Buoyed by incumbency and intact voting bloc 2017 looks like a done deal — at least for now.

With defections back on a grand scale, Jubilee ranks will continue to swell. However, it’s unclear at this point in time if these will translate into seats at the county and national level. Many are keenly watching how the party will navigate the thorny issue of nominations.

Meanwhile, Jubilee is turning Western, Kisii and Maasailand into battlegrounds. It’s also trying to do the same with Coast. Traditionally, these are CORD backyards. The strategy is to force CORD to spend more time and resources in areas perceived as under its stranglehold — and it seems to be working.

Unlike before Raila has focused his attention on Western, making repeated visits there.

Moreover, CORD hasn’t effectively exploited the simmering dissent in the South Rift targeting Deputy President William Ruto.

In some ways, though, the Governor Isaac Ruto-led revolt, comes across more as a turf war, and doesn’t seem to be leaving much doubt about where the presidential vote will go in 2017.

For Raila, though, this is a truly pivotal moment. It marks the beginning of his final date with destiny. And, only one of two outcomes awaits him. His fourth attempt at the presidency could land him in State House. Or, it could write his political obituary.

In contrast to 2013 when the circumstances of his opponents, Kenyatta and Ruto, appeared to favour him, up until a US State Department official made his ‘choices have consequences’ pronouncement, 2017 promises to be Raila’s toughest bid for the top job.

To counter the well-oiled, media-savvy election machine Jubilee Party is set to unveil, Raila needs to re-think and re-engineer his campaign.

In 2013, Raila tagged along too much baggage. The disputed outcome of that election notwithstanding there were too many joyriders in Raila’s campaign, some critics point out. This, they argue, may have helped undermine Raila’s candidature.

This lot, they say, is always happy to ride on Raila’s back to secure their own electoral victory while doing little, if anything, to help Raila’s bid for the presidency. It doesn’t seem like much has changed.

In 2007 Raila put together perhaps the most formidable election machine ever. He is struggling to repeat that feat.

Raila appears to be building his campaign on an anti-corruption platform. But it doesn’t quite seem to be resonating with the masses. There is a sense of resignation and helplessness among citizens when it comes to the question of corruption.

It’s the moral thing for Raila to do in pursuing an anti-corruption agenda, but isn’t what will win him the much-needed presidential votes.

In 2013 Jubilee spent top dollar in messaging, hiring some of the best consultants in the field. Raila needs to repackage himself, and he must be prepared to spend top dollar. After all, this could be his last chance to become Kenya’s president.