Will Raila’s forays in Western Kenya help him to regain his dwindling popularity?

As an observer, I followed closely how things unfolded during the week-long visit by ODM leader Raila Odinga to Western Kenya.  Unlike in the past, the turnout was poor and the reception was not as warm as it used to be previously when he embarked on a similar vote-hunting mission.

In Sabatia and Budalangi constituencies, the home turfs of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and MP Ababu Namwamba , Raila would encounter hostilities from a section of crowds. At one point, scuffles and insults ensued when his supporters and those of his rivals clashed.

The visit would come hot on the heels of rebellion triggered by the resignations and defections of MPs Ababu Namwamba and Paul Otuoma from the ODM but Raila would put up a brave face. He would argue the purpose of his visit was not to put off the latest fires. I know my support in this region is still intact. The people of Western believe in my leadership. They know I am the only one who would liberate them and other Kenyans from ‘the poor leadership’ of the Jubilee administration.

This time, ODM leader would change tactics. He would avoid addressing big rallies and instead meet with the ODM delegates who would gather in hotel rooms and other social halls. Media reports would indicate that most of the delegates were being ferried from wide and far.  Did this confirm he had read the public mood? Did he fear being embarrassed if only a small crowd would show up at the rallies? Did he fear the critics would cast him in bad light? They would argue he had lost the grip of one of his strongholds.

Well, Raila’s reactions to the effect that he still enjoyed the support of the Luhyia would not come as surprise. As a veteran politician, you would not expect him to accept that he has lost it out.

It is worth noting that in both 2007 and 2013 General Elections majority of voters in Western region rallied behind him. Is he assured of a similar support come 2017? The writing is already on the wall that Raila will have to battle it out with President Kenyatta and his Deputy on one hand and ANC leader Mudavadi on the other. Jubilee has initiated and commissioned many development projects and moved to revive and breathe new life into those that had collapsed. Already, the Mumia Sugar Company is back on its feet after the ruling coalition raised and allocated money to bail it out. Besides, Jubilee has managed to get an investor to revive and resuscitate the Webuye based Pan Paper Mill. The factories were known and remain to be the lifeblood of the Luhya nation. Therefore, the collapse of the two had dealt a devastating blow to the community.

In light of this, President Uhuru Kenyatta has now endeared himself to many people in the region. It is not however lost that Hon Raila is working so hard to punch holes and deflate Kenyattta’s popularity. Speaking in one of the forum, he said he had initiated and commissioned the tarmac king of several roads during his tenure as a Prime Minister.

He would however allege that President Kenyatta who was the Finance minister at the time declined to release the needed funds. This was bound to raise two questions. How come he did not make these ‘revelations’ during that time? Being a Prime Minister, Hon Uhuru was a junior official and answerable to him. So, how could he have refused to release the funds? If he did that, one would have expected Raila to reprimand him.

Notably, this is not the first time Raila has been deserted by his key allies and this would happen few months to the General Election. In the countdown to 2013 polls, he lost all members of the Pentagon who decamped from ODM and joined the UhuRuto alliance. The Pentagon was the top decision making organ of the ODM and had rallied behind him during the 2007 Presidential elections. Prior to these polls, he had fallen out with Hon Kalonzo Musyoka, now Wiper leader.

The narrative of those who have since deserted him would bore a common thread. They would accuse him and his key allies [in apparent reference to a cabal of politicians from Luo Nyanza] of failing to give them a space to exercise their democratic and constitutional rights. If you do not sing the song of Raila and pledge loyalty to him, you are branded a traitor. We are tired of being caged inside and subjected to mental torture and slavery. Notably, it appears that Raila has not learnt any lesson. As things stands today, the ODM party is being run and controlled by a small clique of politicians from his home region. Most of them are known to treat the members of the party from other communities with contempt and high levels of arrogance and rudeness.

This explains why many Kenyans would distance themselves from a Raila’s Presidency. They would pose. If his people can behave like this, what if Raila becomes the President?  We will not have a breathing space.  The freedom of speech and political expressions would be drastically curtailed. Let us avoid this route.