Does Baba ever learn?; He keeps on repeating the same mistakes

Remember the story of tortoise and birds that went to a party in the sky? The tortoise manipulated birds in changing his name to fit his selfish interest, in the end, the tortoise was stripped off feathers and left to fall.
There is one man whom I respect, he is the father of democracy, the champion of change, and Kenyan politics circulate around him. He has been detained, exiled, loved by many. He is the former prime minister Rt. Hon Raila Odinga. He is believed to be the best president Kenya has never had. Personally, he claims that he has won election twice and both denied.
 

If he ever won any election why has he never occupied the house in the hill? Is he feared by many especially the elite, hence work overtime to stop him? Though loved by many, what has kept him from getting close to where he has always fought fiercely?
 

Let's begin from 2002, I was young had no voters card. When he joined Moi, he was given secretary general post in KANU, people  joked; "Jogo had swallowed Tinga" as we approached the election year, Moi opted for a younger option  Hon Uhuru Kenyatta. On the other hand, Kibaki, Ngilu, and Late Kijana Wamalwa had a formidable force to counter Moi and KANU.

 As Raila and the group stepped out of KANU, the opposition was already structured. They were fully aware that the only person who was able to beat Uhuru was another Kikuyu. Being a schemer, Raila played the cards that favored him. To date, people believe Raila sacrificed his presidential ambitions for Kibaki. It was either a Kikuyu candidate or Kanu wins; Kibaki Tosha was just a slogan. Raila never supported Kibaki, he joined him to defeat Moi. {yote yawezekana bila Moi}.
 I stand corrected in popularity, late Prof Saitoti was more popular followed by Hon Kalonzo, and Hon Raila was distance third. As NARC was born, number three was to be the PM, Uhuru was defeated by a large margin, and Moi the professor of politics was humiliated.

Betrayal followed, Hon Amos Kimunya once said, “the president cannot go around the country campaigning, and then someone from nowhere assumes all powers as a prime minister".
 2004, due to frustration and failed hopes, Raila, and his battalion joined the same group they humiliated in 2002 and campaigned against the famous Kilifi draft, without letting their supporters read the content, they managed to win.

ODM-Kenya was born, Raila's scheming was working but there was one hurdle blocking his dream, Hon Kalonzo Musyoka. Opinion polls were showing Kalonzo was way ahead of everyone in ODM-Kenya, he had support in Rift valley, Coast, Eastern, some parts of western and Northeastern compared to Hon Raila's Nairobi, Luo Nyanza and some parts of western.  Hon Ruto was a nobody then a mere MP with ambitions, Rift valley had power vacuum hence Kalonzo's popularity, Hon Mudavadi was among the politicians humiliated in 2002, Luhya from his ethnicity were among Kalonzo's supporters, Balala was new in politics though he had served at Mombasa city council.

To finalize the lineup was Hon Joe Nyagah, who was little known. To stop Kalonzo, all these men were needed. It worked perfectly, Ruto emerged Rift valley kingpin, Mudavadi rediscovered himself, as Kalonzo's popularity dwindled.
 

 In 2007 Kenya was almost destroyed due to the flawed election; {nusu mkate} saved the situation. Hon Ruto discovered his potentials thanks to Raila hurrying to sign MOU, and another hurdle emerged. Hon Ruto, this time, the problem was self-made. Ruto was like holding a rotten egg with your little finger; " it was either you keep it and have a chick, or let it fall and endure the smell". Raila decided to endure the smell.

 2010 constitution campaign, Kibaki was leaving a legacy, Raila was championing, Ruto was experimenting. Kibaki won, Raila lost he did not discover, Ruto won it big though his side lost. As we approached 2012, there were political alliances Ruto being the center stage. Whoever Ruto supported had chances to be the fourth president of Kenya. Raila needed Ruto who had moved on, Uhuru and Ruto shared same predicament, ICC, while Raila's sentiments on ICC backfired costing him dearly.
 

2013, he was defeated, he contested, Dr. Willy Mutunga crucified him.  After that, ODM election was botched by men in black as Hon Ababu Namwamba was denied victory. Raila did well by bringing the worrying functions together.  Now that Hon Ababu has decided to quit the post of secretary general, Raila is still confident of western backing.
When Hon Namwamba was resigning, seven votes were behind him, the same have powers to influence thousands. Though they have signed what you call political suicide and might go home by 9 o'clock as Hon Sumra said, thousands of votes will go home with them, as a politician you know what that means.