2017 victory or failure to be determined now

For those who may not be in the know, campaigns for 2017 are already in top gear. From the President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto and the CORD trio of Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula, the 2017 campaigns may look far but the gentlemen aforementioned have enough wisdom to tell that you need to start very early.

For those who have done enough research or are doing it on Kenya’s politics, starting late in campaigns can be a disaster. Last general election after observing the voter listing by IEBC, I could tell that CORD had been caught flat footed and believing the posters showing them to be ahead was a fool’s game. As we speak, the vernacular radio stations in the country have been heavily deployed to mobilize voters as well as calculated political rallies and social meetings that include church gatherings. In a nutshell nothing is being left to chance. Obviously even a casual look at Social Media can tell there is a lot going on.

But the process to a successful campaign is long and wieldy. It involves a lot. This includes an ID card acquisition, voter registration, mobilization and the actual voting. My gut feeling being a persistent and a person who earns his bread through research is that the clever ones are already ahead on this. I at least can understand and speak several Kenyan languages. I at least understand more languages than I can speak fluently. I also happen to have friends across very many communities in Kenya and communities across the globe. I get plenty of knowledge by just speaking or rather chatting with people through the various channels may it be face to face or through online media/platforms.

I have been listening to several vernacular stations in Kenya and I can tell that there are heavy and emotional appeals to voters all with regard to 2017 elections. I can credit the Jubilee coalition to be far ahead of CORD in terms of voter mobilization at the moment though the later has been building a momentum though still leaving conspicuous gaps in their mobilization strategies. During the period to the last election the Jubilee coalition was cleverly far ahead of CORD in terms of organization, voter mobilization and branding. Indeed, the voter registration exercise then was taken more seriously in Jubilee strongholds than CORD.

I used to wonder loudly about opinion polls, then as through the voter registration roll just showed that Jubilee needed to be deft in mobilization of the voters to vote in larger numbers and the game would be sealed. The challenge with CORD then was not that it was not in a position to win at the onset.  It made too many mistakes and they left too many loopholes in terms of getting their many strongholds to get to the voters list as well as to get to vote. Their coalition also came rather a bit late and after it was obvious one of the key players had been short-charged at Jubilee.  The card that won was played in Central Kenya regions and the larger portion of Rift Valley. The polls were also far from prefect but CORD made several critical mistakes.

I can already tell that in terms of mobilization for another round, the same regions will have a huge voter registration and turnout during the polling day.  Does this mean the defeat of CORD? NO. What CORD is lacking is some deft organization and   deeper mobilization otherwise they have a chance as well. If they manage to deftly manage the interests of the three main partners Raila, Kalonzo and Wetangula they are a force not to dismiss. After all they have a larger voter base spread across the country than Jubilee. The problem with CORD is discipline and consistency in seeking voters’ power. To Jubilee credit they seem to know how to easily get the voters to the ballot. They are also deft at self-branding and greater marketing that caters for the mistakes they have made.

By the way, the road to 2022 general elections also begins now. The formations that win that election will be built now. It does not matter who will win in 2017, the big picture is the networks and clusters that will be built and the consequent dispensation after the elections. May I give you a theory? Since 2002 parties have kept mutating and coalitions changing.  The coalition that came into power in 2002 had vastly changed to another set of formations in the contest of 2007. In 2013 some other sets of coalitions emerged. If you keenly study the communities in the competing groups of those last three elections, you find shifts in some communities in those formations.

This should tell you that after 2017 chances are very high that the sets of competing coalitions will be changed. After all the demographic dynamics and rise in powerful communication tools will inform lot of changes. Mind you if you look closely the electronic media and print media are today competing for space with powerful social media. In a nutshell mobilization, tastes and preferences more so with a more robust, more informed and angry young population will shift a lot in politics just as it is happening in consumer habits.

So right now it is who wants to achieve what in the short term to midterm. The ground will keep shifting but what is clear unless the main political players hit the ground early chances that one would be easily overtaken, left behind or to lose ground are very high. Most in the business community hate the campaign season nor would they like early campaigns or heated political contest but the reality in Kenya is politics has to happen this way. The cultural and historical perspectives informing the present dynamics dictates for aggressive contest almost every time. The idea is to manage the happenings properly so us to avoid the possibilities of hostilities, violence or disruptions of critical economic and social activities. But with a lot of blot in our history I doubt you would expect Kenya’s politics to be different at present times.