A do-or-die political battle for Uhuru, Raila shaping up

Kenya’s economy appears to be headed into more turbulence in 2016 as political headwinds intensify ahead of the 2017 General Election.

For CORD leader Raila Odinga, it will be a do-or-die battle because if he loses again, he will never get another good chance.

If President Uhuru Kenyatta loses to Odinga, then a come-back will be almost impossible in another election given his weak economic performance thus far.

I expect Uhuru to fulfill pledges he made ahead of last election this year to stand a better chance in 2017 poll.

I will not be surprised if he forms some sort of an understanding with the Chief Justice so that speedy justice is delivered which might result in some buddies being thrown under the bus so as to build the required momentum in fighting graft. Point to note here is the weak link in the office of Director of Public Prosecutions.

The other thing the President must do is to collect more tax revenue because debt is becoming unsustainable. The way to do this is to make certain reforms at Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA). The board of KRA is composed of political appointees, not finance people. The President can constitute a small committee of accountants, auditors, a Treasury representative and tax consultants who would interview and hire board members with the best reform ideas ;and tax collection methodologies towards an annual Sh2.5 trillion Rubicon.

Almost 75 per cent of tax revenue is paid through Large Taxpayers Office (LTO). Considering that numerous large corporations have issued profit warnings, then KRA is starting at disaster unless certain reforms are done immediately.

Some of the reforms would include mapping of properties, businesses and aligning these with extra-decentralised tax stations, creating practical targets informed by revenue maps, robust enforcement of withholding tax system, a blanket tax amnesty, busting customs cartels including bank employees who pay custom taxes into fictitious accounts, instituting an attractive whistle-blowing programme, resource-rich research centres and public education.

Another measure that would make tax money start rolling in with immediate effect is arrest and prosecution of tax dodgers.

A reconstituted KRA board would then head-hunt for a new commissioner general best suited to meet the set targets within 12 calendar months. This tactic would enable the incumbent to meet infrastructure targets in the Jubilee manifesto.

The third way is to cause change in budgets by reforming civil service, including reducing wage bill towards 30-40 per cent of ordinary revenue. This would free a lot of resources which should be ring-fenced towards universal provision of sufficient clean drinking water and other essential services.

This is a simple-sounding formula but it can do wonders and is highly desirable. The middle-class can be “bewitched” with a sweetener roll-out of 500,000 cheap housing units on tenant-purchase terms.

Considering that it is about 19 months to elections, and that Raila has stepped up his campaign rhetoric with clearly effective results, only a very highly focussed delivery strategy can enable the incumbent beat the CORD leader in the first round. I am assuming a third choice will be weak.

A run-off will morph into another 40 against 2. Unmitigated disaster for UhuRuto. Nobody even knows what prosecutor Fatou Bensouda and ICC judges will decide on DP William Ruto.