Birthing a new party poses risk for Jubilee

NAIROBI: The Jubilee coalition successfully sponsored the President and Deputy President to power in 2013. It also sponsored the largest number of MPs and Senators. Nearly 50 per cent of Governors and their Deputies owe their allegiance to the coalition as do many MCAs.

The Jubilee coalition commands, by reason of numbers, tyrannical or otherwise, the Executive and legislative arms of the National Government. For the same reason, it influences the majority of County Executives and Assemblies. Jubilee as the ruling coalition enjoys an easy rule because of its election-day successes in different arms and levels of government.

The idea to dissolve its constituent parties and merge them into one party, the Jubilee Party, 18 more months to the next General Election, is likely to run into legal and political hurdles.

It also has the potential to dilute their majority voting bloc in the National Assembly, Senate and County Assemblies. The President is a member of TNA, his Deputy URP. They both have independent control and influence over their respective political parties. Should their parties merge into one, it will be the first time in history that a President and his Deputy would have abandoned the political parties that successfully sponsored them to power and government.

TNA, URP and the other constituent parties of the Jubilee coalition will remain political parties until the day the proposed Jubilee Party is registered. The registration of the merger will see to the birth of the Jubilee Party and the death of TNA, URP and the other Jubilee coalition parties.
The death of TNA, URP and other Jubilee coalition parties will leave the President, his Deputy President, Governors, MPs, Senators and MCAs party-less. This will be unprecedented. Since they cannot be members of two political parties at the same time, they will have to wait for the death of their political parties before they make their next move. It is this next move that will be the biggest political and legal hurdle for the TNA and URP luminaries.

Section 11 of the Political Parties Act gives MPs, Senators and MCAs a choice. They are not bound by the decisions of their political parties to dissolve and merge. Those from TNA will be free to choose whether to join the Jubilee Party, ODM, Wiper, Ford Kenya or any other party, or become independent candidates.
The loyalty of URP MPs, Senators and MCAs to URP and the coalition will end on the dissolution of URP.

With the stroke of a pen, the President his Deputy will be gambling in an election year with the majority blocs they enjoy at the National Assembly, Senate and the County Assemblies. The President and the Deputy President will be gambling with the majority blocs they enjoy at a time when, facing re-election, MPs, Senators and MCAs are only loyal to themselves and the constituents they are eyeing.

Is the risk of losing its tyranny of members in both Houses of Parliament and half the County Assemblies worth it 18 months to the re-election campaigns?
Having abandoned TNA and URP, the parties that sponsored them in the last elections, the members of the Jubilee Party will automatically lose any entitlement to a share of the Political Parties Fund. Only political parties that garnered five per cent of the total national votes are entitled to a share of the Political Parties Fund.

Section 11 of the Political Parties Act does not apply to the President or his Deputy. It also does not apply to the Governor and his Deputy. Once their parties are dissolved, they will all stand the risk of successful legal challenges to their continuing in office under a different party. Is this a risk worth taking?